investingLive Americas FX news wrap 26 Jun: Greenback ends mixed, still higher for week

2026年6月27日最近のFX関連情報ニュース

The U.S. dollar ended Friday slightly mixed but still posted a gain for the week as investors turned more cautious toward risk assets. The greenback came under pressure from falling U.S. Treasury yields, particularly at the short and intermediate maturities, and another sharp decline in crude oil prices as markets grew increasingly confident that Middle East tensions would not disrupt energy flows through the Strait of Hormuz.

On the currency front, the dollar fell vs the EUR, GBP, CAD but declines were modest. The greenback rose vs the AUD and NZD. It as near unchanged vs the CHF and JPY.

Dollar Performance vs. Major Currencies

EUR/USD: Euro rose 0.13% to 1.1384
GBP/USD: British pound rose 0.01% to 1.3192
USD/JPY: Dollar fell 0.02% to 161.74 yen
USD/CHF: Dollar fell 0.05% to 0.8094 Swiss francs
USD/CAD: Canadian dollar rose 0.09%, with USD/CAD falling to 1.4185
AUD/USD: Australian dollar fell 0.22% to 0.6893
NZD/USD: New Zealand dollar fell 0.19% to 0.5636

For the trading week, the USD ended stronger vs all the major currencies with the largest gains coming vs the AUD and the NZD. The greenbacks gains were limited vs the JPY as the USDJPY tested the 40 year high at 161.95 and found willing sellers.

EUR, +0.72%
JPY +0.27%
GBP +0.31%
CHF +0.33%
CAD, +0.27%
AUD +1.70%
NZD +1.82%

The broader S&P and NASDAQ indices closed lower for the fifth consecutive days (althoug declines in the S&P were modest over the last three trading days). The NASDAQ was the weakest performer, falling 0.24%, while the Dow Jones Industrial Average slipped 0.09% and the S&P 500 edged lower by 0.05%.

The NASDAQ index was down 4.60% for the week.The S&P 500 was down 1.95%, its worst weekly performance since the week ending June 1.The Dow Jones Industrial Average continues to hold up relatively well. Although it slipped 0.09% on the day, the blue-chip index still gained 0.60% for the week and remains higher by 1.65% for June.

US yields today fell in the shorter and. The longer end saw modest gains:

2 year yield 4.096%, -2.4 basis points
5 year yield 4.133%, -2.9 basis points
10 year yield 4.376% -1.5 basis points
30 year yield 4.868%, +0.9 point basis points

Looking at the economic data today:

US advance goods trade balance

The goods deficit widened sharply to -$105.8B versus -$85.0B expected and -$82.4B prior. Exports fell while imports rose, making net trade a likely drag on Q2 GDP trackers. Bias: weaker.

US wholesale/retail inventories

Wholesale inventories rose 0.3%, in line with estimates, while retail inventories rose 0.6%. Inventory accumulation can support GDP, but only if demand holds up. Bias: neutral to mildly stronger.

University of Michigan consumer sentiment

Final June sentiment came in at 49.5, below the 50.0 expected, but above the preliminary 48.9 and May’s 44.8. Consumers are still gloomy, but sentiment improved from May. Bias: mixed, but still weak overall.

Overall bias

The combined data lean weaker economically. The larger trade deficit is the main negative, sentiment remains depressed, and inventories provide only a modest offset.

Fed's Kashkari spoke for the first time since the FOMC rate decision last week. Kashkari struck a notably hawkish tone on Friday, saying he has shifted from expecting a rate cut earlier this year to now penciling in one rate hike by year-end. Kashkari said inflation pressures are becoming more broad-based and are no longer just about higher energy prices tied to the Middle East conflict. He also expressed concern that geopolitical risks remain elevated and cautioned against assuming the inflation threat has passed.

Kashkari emphasized that his forecast is not set in stone—calling it "a pencil" projection that will depend on incoming data—but reiterated that inflation has been running too high for too long and remains the Fed's top priority. His comments reinforce the increasingly hawkish shift within the Fed, where a growing number of policymakers now see the possibility that rates may need to move higher rather than lower if inflation fails to cool.

Next week the US jobs report will highlight the week's data. The date will be released on Thursday due to the observance of the July 4th holiday on July 3.

Fed Chair Warsh and other central bankers will highlight the speakers when they all speak on Wednesday at 9 AM.

Key Economic Calendar: Week of June 29 – July 3

Monday, June 29

Key Speakers

1:30 PM ET: ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks.

Tuesday, June 30

Economic Releases

German Preliminary CPI (m/m): Forecast +0.1% | Prior -0.2%
Canada GDP (m/m): Forecast +0.4% | Prior -0.1%
U.S. Conference Board Consumer Confidence: Forecast 94.2 | Prior 93.1
U.S. JOLTS Job Openings: Forecast 7.28M | Prior 7.62M

Wednesday, July 1

Economic Releases

Eurozone Core CPI Flash Estimate (y/y): Forecast 2.5% | Prior 2.5%
Eurozone CPI Flash Estimate (y/y): Forecast 3.0% | Prior 3.2%
U.S. ADP Employment Change: Forecast +118K | Prior +122K
U.S. ISM Manufacturing PMI: Forecast 53.7 | Prior 54.0
U.S. ISM Manufacturing Prices Paid: Forecast 79.0 | Prior 82.1

Key Speakers

9:00 AM ET: BOC Governor Tiff Macklem speaks.
9:00 AM ET: ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks.
9:00 AM ET: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks.
9:00 AM ET: Fed Chair Kevin Warsh speaks.
10:30 AM ET: ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks.

Thursday, July 2

Economic Releases

Switzerland CPI (m/m): Forecast +0.1% | Prior +0.2%
U.S. Average Hourly Earnings (m/m): Forecast +0.3% | Prior +0.3%
U.S. Non-Farm Payrolls: Forecast +114K | Prior +172K
U.S. Unemployment Rate: Forecast 4.3% | Prior 4.3%
U.S. Initial Jobless Claims: Forecast 220K | Prior 215K

Friday, July 3

Key Speakers

4:00 AM ET: ECB President Christine Lagarde speaks.
11:00 AM ET: BOE Governor Andrew Bailey speaks

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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2026年6月27日最近のFX関連情報ニュース

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