What are the main events for today?

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EUROPEAN SESSION

In the European session, the main highlights will be the Flash PMIs for the major Eurozone economies and the UK. Given the end of the US-Iran war and lower oil prices, we can expect the PMIs to show improvement in business sentiment. The risk going forward is that stronger economic activity keeps inflation pressures high requiring central banks to maintain a tightening bias.

AMERICAN SESSION

In the American session, the only highlight will the US Flash PMIs. Services PMI is expected to tick higher to 51.1 vs 50.7 prior, while the Manufacturing PMI is seen easing to 54.6 vs 55.1. Unless we get big deviations, I don't expect significant reaction to the data as the focus is likely on the NFP and CPI next as they are going to influence the probabilities for the July FOMC meeting (now standing at 34% for a hike).

CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS

  • 08:30 GMT/04:30 ET - ECB's Lane (neutral - voter)
  • 13:00 GMT/09:00 ET - BoC Governor Macklem (neutral - voter)
  • 13:55 GMT/09:55 ET - ECB's Vujcic (neutral - voter)
  • 13:55 GMT/09:55 ET - BoE's Taylor (dovish - voter)
  • 17:30 GMT/13:30 ET - BoE's Dhingra (dovish - voter)
This article was written by Giuseppe Dellamotta at investinglive.com.

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