AI, fiscal spending and credit growth to drive markets higher, UBS says
The $820 billion AI capex forecast for 2026, rising to roughly $990 billion in 2027, is the single most consequential number for semiconductor and infrastructure plays in this note, and UBS explicitly flags upside risk to those estimates. The 40% cloud growth figure and $2 trillion in advance compute orders reported by hyperscalers in Q1 suggest the demand side of the AI trade remains structurally intact, which limits the downside for the sector even in a risk-off episode. The 72% MSCI Asia ex-Japan earnings growth forecast is aggressive and front-loads a great deal of optimism into North Asia's hardware supply chain, making the durability of the US-Iran deal a more significant variable for that trade than UBS's headline constructive tone might suggest. The hawkish central bank signals flagged as a near-term risk are not enough in UBS's view to derail the earnings story, but they do reinforce the case for active navigation rather than passive exposure through the second half.
UBS remains bullish on global equities over six to twelve months, forecasting S&P 500 EPS growth of 20% in 2026 and AI-related capital expenditure of $820bn, with further gains expected across Asia and Europe.
Summary:
- UBS maintains a constructive base case for equities over the next six and twelve months, citing AI capital expenditure, a resilient US economy, fiscal spending and strong credit creation as the key supports, according to the bank's mid-year note
- The bank forecasts AI-related capital expenditure will rise 68% year on year in 2026 to around $820 billion, followed by a further 21% increase to roughly $990 billion in 2027, with upside risks to both figures, per the note
- Hyperscalers reported $2 trillion in advance compute resource orders in Q1 and cloud growth of 40% year on year, per UBS, which sees continued AI capex commitment as a foundation for further gains in AI-linked stocks
- UBS forecasts S&P 500 earnings per share growth of 20% in 2026 and 12% in 2027, with consumer discretionary, industrials and healthcare cited as sectors with broadening return potential beyond the AI complex, according to the note
- MSCI Asia ex-Japan earnings are forecast to rise 72% in 2026, led by North Asia's AI hardware supply chain, with additional upside possible if the US-Iran deal proves durable and oil and rate-sensitive sectors recover, per UBS
- The bank also favours Japan for its AI supply chain exposure and corporate reform momentum, and sees opportunities in European industrials, healthcare and consumer discretionary, according to the note
UBS has reaffirmed a bullish stance on global equities for the next six to twelve months, arguing that the combination of surging artificial intelligence capital expenditure, a resilient US economy and ongoing fiscal support around the world is sufficient to sustain and broaden the equity rally despite near-term turbulence from geopolitical risk and hawkish central bank signals.
The Swiss bank's note acknowledges that volatility is likely to remain elevated in the near term, with geopolitical developments and shifting investor confidence in the AI trade both capable of producing sharp swings. Concerns over inflation and tighter monetary policy have been reinforced by hawkish signals from major central banks over the past week. But UBS treats these as navigation hazards rather than structural threats to its base case.
At the centre of that base case is the AI investment cycle. UBS forecasts that AI-related capital expenditure will rise 68% year on year in 2026 to approximately $820 billion, before climbing a further 21% in 2027 to around $990 billion, with the bank explicitly flagging upside risks to both figures. The confidence behind those numbers rests on first-quarter results from the major hyperscalers, which showed cloud growth accelerating to 40% year on year and a combined advance order book of $2 trillion in compute resources. UBS reads that data as confirmation that demand for AI capacity continues to outrun supply, providing a durable foundation for further gains in AI-linked stocks.
Beyond the AI complex, UBS sees conditions in place for the rally to broaden. A solid US labour market, strong credit creation and continued fiscal support are expected to sustain corporate earnings outside the technology sector, with consumer discretionary stocks underpinned by a supportive spending backdrop, industrials benefiting from a pickup in the ISM Manufacturing index, and healthcare offering resilience that the bank characterises as more than merely defensive. UBS forecasts S&P 500 earnings per share will grow 20% in 2026 and a further 12% in 2027.
Internationally, the bank sees its most compelling opportunities in Asia. MSCI Asia ex-Japan earnings are forecast to surge 72% in 2026, driven primarily by North Asia's position in the AI hardware supply chain, though UBS notes that underlying strength is visible beyond technology and that a durable US-Iran agreement could unlock additional gains in oil and rate-sensitive sectors including airlines, industrials, real estate and financials. Japan is also favoured for its diversified exposure to the global AI supply chain, a cyclical recovery and a corporate reform programme that continues to improve shareholder returns. In Europe, the bank identifies industrials, healthcare and consumer discretionary as the sectors most likely to reward selective stock-picking, with a preference for companies exposed to global demand and structural growth themes.
The overarching message from UBS is that the first half of 2026 has demonstrated how quickly market narratives can shift and how punishing excess cash positions become when equities move higher. The bank's advice to investors is to remain invested, keep diversification central to portfolio construction, and treat single-stock concentration as a risk to be managed rather than a shortcut to outperformance.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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