investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Encouraging US-Iran progress weighs on oil, USD

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Session wrap — bullet summary

  • Strait of Hormuz traffic collapsed to five vessels on Sunday after Iran announced a closure, down from 26 the previous day, before news flow improved as US-Iran talks in Switzerland continued despite an Iranian delegation walkout
  • Qatar and Pakistan, as mediators at the Lake Lucerne summit, said encouraging progress was made across 18 hours of negotiations; the US and Iran agreed a 60-day roadmap to a final deal, a High Level Committee for political oversight, and working groups on nuclear, sanctions, and dispute resolution
  • A communication line on Hormuz was established to ensure safe commercial passage for as long as talks continue; a de-confliction cell involving the US, Iran, Lebanon, and the mediators was also agreed to oversee the end of military operations in Lebanon
  • Iran’s Foreign Minister Araghchi declared the blockade lifted, oil and petrochemical exports waived, some frozen assets to be released, and a major reconstruction and development plan for Iran in motion — though Israel was absent from the joint statement, raising questions about ceasefire durability
  • Eighteen workers remain missing and at least 54 are injured after a large explosion at the Ras Laffan LNG plant near Doha, attributed to a technical accident during restart operations
  • China banned dual-use exports to 10 US military-linked entities including rare earth miners MP Materials and USA Rare Earth, and barred Chinese buyers from procuring goods from 46 other US firms
  • China held benchmark lending rates steady for a 13th consecutive month, with the one-year LPR at 3.00% and the five-year at 3.50%, signalling no urgency to ease despite sluggish credit growth
  • The USD traded choppily and oil swung sharply, initially spiking on Iran’s Hormuz closure announcement before reversing into negative territory as the Swiss talks produced cautious optimism
  • A woman was killed in the US late Friday when a Tesla reportedly operating in driver-assist mode left its lane and struck a brick building, the woman’s home, at high speed
  • President Trump is scheduled to sign executive orders at 15:30 EDT / 20:30 BST Monday

A session dominated by the push-pull of the US-Iran endgame, with the Strait of Hormuz once again the fulcrum. The new trading week opened badly, with Hormuz traffic cratering to five vessels on Sudnay after Iran announced a closure and its delegation walked out of the Lake Lucerne talks in protest at Trump’s online threats to resume bombing. Oil spiked, the dollar churned, and for a few hours last week’s fragile optimism looked like it might not survive contact with Monday.

It didn’t hold as a bearish story. The joint statement from Qatari and Pakistani mediators carried enough weight to reverse the move; 18 hours of talks, a 60-day roadmap, a High Level Committee, working groups across nuclear, sanctions, and dispute resolution, and crucially a dedicated communication line on Hormuz designed to prevent exactly the kind of incident that nearly derailed the day. Iranian FM Araghchi went further than the joint statement, declaring the blockade lifted, frozen assets moving, and a reconstruction plan for Iran underway. Oil slipped back into the red.

The absence of Israel from the joint statement remains the most conspicuous gap. The de-confliction cell for Lebanon includes the US, Iran, and the mediators, but a durable ceasefire that doesn’t explicitly bind Israel is a framework with an obvious pressure point.

Away from the main event, Ras Laffan provided a sharp reminder that the physical infrastructure underpinning Gulf energy is still fragile; 18 missing, 54 injured in an explosion during restart operations, with QatarEnergy still silent on plant damage.

China’s rare earth export controls added another layer, targeting the Pentagon-backed MP Materials and USA Rare Earth in a move that goes well beyond symbolism. Beijing also held its lending rates for a 13th straight month, underscoring that whatever stimulus is coming, it isn’t coming via the rate channel.

Trump will be signing executive orders land at 15:30 EDT. Given the day’s trajectory, the market will be watching for any ill-dsiciplined Iran-related comments from him.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

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