Economic and event calendar in Asia Thursday, June 18, 2026: New Zealand Q1 GDP preview
New Zealand's March quarter GDP data is expected to show the economy gained solid momentum in the early months of 2026, even as the Middle East conflict that erupted in late February looms as a far larger threat to output in the quarters ahead.
The median market forecast points to quarterly growth of 0.9%, up sharply from the 0.2% expansion recorded in the December quarter. On an annual basis, growth is seen slipping to 1.1% from 1.3% as a strong March quarter result a year earlier creates a high base. The Reserve Bank of New Zealand had pencilled in 1.0% quarterly growth in its May Monetary Policy Statement, a level matched by both ANZ and Westpac in their updated forecasts, while BNZ sits marginally below at 0.9%, ASB at 0.8% and Kiwibank at the low end with 0.7%.
Economists broadly agree the figures will capture a period of genuine recovery rather than the disruption to come. Manufacturing is expected to be among the strongest contributors, with food production supported by high milk collections, a rebound in fruit and wine output, and strong machinery activity. Wholesale trade, professional services, retail and tourism are also tipped to have added meaningfully to headline growth. Construction is the notable drag, with residential and non-residential building work falling around 3.5% in the quarter.
A key caveat running through most forecasts is the distorting effect of seasonal adjustments. Westpac estimates that the methodology used by Statistics NZ inflates March quarter results by around 0.4 percentage points, meaning underlying growth is likely closer to 0.6%.
The more consequential question is what comes next. The Iran conflict, which intensified through late February and March, is expected to register far more heavily in June quarter data, with at least one major bank forecasting a 0.3% contraction in Q2. The March print, however strong, is broadly being read as the starting position for a much harder period ahead.
The result is also the only significant data point before the RBNZ's 8 July OCR review. The bank left the cash rate unchanged at 2.25% in May following a 3-3 committee vote, and has signalled that a tightening cycle is approaching. A significant upside or downside surprise could influence the balance of voting, though several economists suggest the committee is more focused on forward-looking inflation indicators than backward-looking activity data.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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