What has the USD done post the FOMC rate decision?
The USD has moved higher after the more hawkish dot plot. Chair Warsh and the Fed took out reference to forward guidance but the dot plot showed the Fed members hand. Of course that can change tomorrow and as Warsh said, the expectations were all made in pencil, meaning that they are not permanent.
Technically speaking, the rise in the USD is seeing some bounce back from the initial run but the bias from all turned more dollar bullish. .
EURUSD.
The EURUSD has moved below both its 100-hour and 200-hour moving averages, shifting the near-term technical bias in favor of the sellers. The 200-hour moving average at 1.15657 now serves as a key close-risk resistance level for bearish traders.
The pair fell to a low of 1.1536 but was unable to extend the decline toward the next important support zone between 1.14989 and 1.1506. That failure to reach the lower target area has encouraged a modest rebound, with the price currently trading near 1.1556.
On the topside, the first hurdle comes at the 200-hour moving average (1.15657), followed by the 100-hour moving average at 1.15906. Buyers would need to reclaim and hold above both levels to shift the technical bias back in their favor. Until then, rallies are likely to be viewed as corrective, with sellers maintaining the near-term advantage.
GBPUSD
The GBPUSD broke below its 200-hour moving average at 1.33902, accelerating to a session low of 1.3336. The decline also pushed the pair beneath a key swing area between 1.3365 and 1.33739, increasing the bearish bias in the process.
Despite the downside momentum, sellers were unable to reach the next important targets, including last Thursday’s swing low at 1.3323 and the May/June double-bottom support at 1.33045. The inability to test those levels has helped spark a modest recovery.
For sellers, the first close-risk area now comes in between 1.33658 and 1.33739, where the prior swing zone could act as resistance. More conservative traders will look to the 200-hour moving average at 1.33902 as the key line in the sand. As long as the price remains below that level, sellers retain the near-term technical advantage.
USDCAD:
The USDCAD has been one of the strongest-trending major currency pairs since early May, and that bullish momentum remained firmly intact today as the pair climbed to a new 2026 high of 1.4071. The move also pushed the pair to its highest level since November 2025, underscoring the strength of the current uptrend.
With buyers remaining in control, attention now turns to the next upside target at 1.40825, a key swing level from late 2025. A break above that resistance would open the door for a test of the 50% retracement of the decline from the January 2025 high to the January 2026 low, which comes in at 1.41384.
As long as the price continues to hold above its recent breakout levels, the path of least resistance remains to the upside, with buyers maintaining a firm technical advantage.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.