Fair valuation? Who really cares anymore
Since its IPO, SpaceX stock has surged more than 56%, pushing its market cap past $2.7 trillion and making it the fifth most valuable company in the world, even though it’s still not anywhere close to profitability.
The company lost $4.9 billion last year and another $4.27 billion in just the first quarter of 2026, making it very much a cash-burning machine, even as Musk projects it could reach $1 trillion in annual revenue by 2030, with Goldman Sachs estimating over $470 billion and Morgan Stanley closer to $330 billion.
And beyond the weak financials, there’s another potential headwind to keep in mind: unlike the usual six-month IPO lockup, the first 20% of insider shares become eligible for sale after the Q2 2026 earnings report in September, followed by several 7% unlocks between 70 and 135 days after the IPO, and then another 28% after a later earnings report.
As for the potential boost from SpaceX getting fast-tracked into major U.S. indices, there could be a short-term lift since passive ETFs would be forced buyers and add liquidity, but most investors, hedge funds, and underwriters usually price that in well ahead of time, meaning much of the demand is likely already baked into the stock.
Tesla is a good example in that sense, with its stock running up ahead of joining the index only to dip on the actual inclusion day. It’s also worth noting that S&P 500 inclusion will take time, as S&P Dow Jones Indices has refused to change its established eligibility rules to fast-track SpaceX.
That said, fast-tracking index inclusion could do more harm than good, as if SpaceX underperforms, the downside impact would be more significant, including for large holders like pension funds. And if we extend that logic further, with companies like Anthropic and OpenAI potentially following a similar accelerated path into major indices after their IPOs, holding broad index ETFs could become noticeably riskier than it used to be.
For now, markets are being supported by hopes that the U.S. campaign in Iran ends, the Strait of Hormuz reopens, and with that, inflation pressures cool, allowing the Fed to return to easing monetary policy sooner. Now, if a U.S.–Iran memorandum does not get signed this week and tensions start to escalate again, risk assets would likely be among the main casualties.
This article was written by IL Contributors at investinglive.com.