US May advance retail sales +0.9% vs +0.5% expected
- Prior was +0.5%
Details:
- Ex-autos +0.8% vs 0.5% expected
- Prior ex autos +0.7%
- Ex autos and gas +0.5 vs +0.5% prior
- Control group +0.7% vs +0.4% expected
- Prior control +0.5%
- Retail sales y/y vs +4.87% prior
Bank of America forecast a beat on sales based on cardholder data and that’s exactly what happened.
US retail sales measure the total dollar value of receipts at retail and food-services establishments, compiled by the Census Bureau’s Advance Monthly Retail Trade Survey. It’s the broadest read on goods consumption, capturing autos, gas, building materials, e-commerce, and the one service line in the report — bars and restaurants. The critical caveat: the headline is nominal, not adjusted for inflation, so price moves and volume moves are indistinguishable in the top-line number.
That distinction did the heavy lifting through April. Headline sales rose 0.5% on the month, in line with consensus, but decelerated from March’s 1.6% surge. Strip out the optics and the picture softens: gasoline prices jumped sharply as the Iran conflict kept crude elevated, meaning much of the gain was pump inflation rather than real demand. In real terms, retail sales actually fell 0.2% m/m.
The control group — which excludes gas, autos, and building materials, and feeds into GDP — is the cleaner signal. It rose 0.5%, with core sales up 5.7% year-on-year, pointing to steady underlying demand even as the headline flattered itself.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.