Silver is back below its 200 day MA setting the MA as a new risk/bias defining level
When the price of any traded asset breaks below a key technical level, it typically shifts the bias in the direction of the break and turns that level into an important risk-defining area. That is the situation silver finds itself in after closing below its 200-day moving average yesterday for the first time since April 2025, more than a year ago. The 200-day moving average, currently at $67.26, now serves as a key barometer for the trend. As long as the price remains below that level, sellers retain the technical advantage.
On the downside, silver traded to a low of $63.38 today, briefly moving below the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the April 2025 low, which comes in at $63.98. However, buyers stepped in and the price has since rebounded to around $64.76. That leaves the market caught in a battle between the 61.8% retracement support level and the overhead resistance from the 200-day moving average.
For now, the sellers remain in control while the price stays below the 200-day moving average. A renewed move below the 61.8% retracement with momentum would strengthen the bearish case and shift focus toward the March swing low and the 2026 low at $61.02.
If sellers are able to break below $61.02, the technical picture would deteriorate further. Beyond that level, chart support becomes sparse, leaving room for a deeper decline toward the next significant support zone near $54.46.
Silver began the year with strong bullish momentum, rallying sharply from its year-end closing level of $71.60 to a peak of $121.64 on January 29. However, that surge proved unsustainable, and the metal quickly reversed course, plunging to $64.10 by February 6.
Since then, price action has been marked by heightened volatility, with large swings in both directions. The decline extended to a new low for the year at $61.02 on March 23 before buyers regained control and drove prices higher. That recovery culminated in a swing high of $89.37 on May 13.
The rally from the March low has since given way to another sharp correction. Since the May peak, silver has fallen approximately 28% in just 18 trading days, underscoring the aggressive selling pressure that has emerged and the elevated volatility that continues to characterize the market.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.