US stock market gains fade quickly
A promising start for US equity markets has very quickly soured.
The Nasdaq is now lower after climbing 1% at the open.
I highlighted Marvell as a barometer before the open and it climbed 3% to start but is now quickly down 6.5%.
Nvidia also reversed lower and is down 1.2%.
I think there is some angst about issuance and crowding-out in the stock market with OpenAI yesterday saying that it’s filed for an IPO, which could come in Q4.
In the shorter term, we get the IPO from SpaceX on Friday and there are indications that the interest at the $1.75 trillion valuation is tepid at best. Shares of Tesla are down 0.7% after opening higher on fears that SpaceX will draw dollars out of Elon’s most-famous company.
It’s important to note that SpaceX is only selling 5% of the company via IPO but the fear is that as vesting and lockups expire, there will be steady selling pressure as long-time owners and employees look to turn equity into cash. It’s a similar dynamic for Anthropic and OpenAI, which have turned hundreds of employees into the ultra-wealthy, with many clocking in at $100m paper valuations. Who wouldn’t put some in the bank rather than risk holding it all in a company that could collapse as quickly as it grew.
Moreover, the valuations for all these tech companies are stretched by an insane capex war that’s driving up the cost of everything. The fear is that they won’t be able to raise cash indefinitely and will need to continue to tap equity, as Google did earlier this month.
Outside of tech, there are some better indications as the Russell 2000 remains 2% higher on lower oil prices and hopes for an end (finally) to the war in Iran. WTI crude oil is down $3.46 today to $87.93. I tend to think oil is a buy at $80 even if the war ends because inventory rebuilding is going to keep a bid in energy for awhile.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.