investingLive Asia-Pacific FX news wrap: Gulf escalation, yen jitters, & biggest IPO ever

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Summary

  • Iran fired at least 10 ballistic missiles at US military bases in Kuwait, targeting Ali Al Salem Air Base, and followed with strikes on Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Dubai; air raid sirens activated at US bases in Saudi Arabia and all flights in Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE were suspended temporarily
  • CENTCOM had earlier disabled an unladen tanker heading to Iran’s Kharg Island with a Hellfire missile strike to the engine room; multiple explosions were also reported off the southern coast of Qeshm Island
  • Oil prices rose sharply on the escalation, with an immediate risk premium spike in Brent and WTI; the USD added modest gains through the session
  • Japan’s Finance Minister Katayama warned Tokyo is prepared to respond appropriately on forex as USD/JPY touched 160, the recognised intervention threshold; the dollar paused at that level as traders grew cautious
  • Japan’s cabinet approved a ¥3.1 trillion supplementary budget funded entirely by deficit bonds to subsidise fuel and utility costs, with a ¥2.5 trillion reserve targeting gasoline prices first
  • Australia’s Q1 GDP came in at 0.3% q/q and 2.5% y/y, both below consensus, as a surge in data centre equipment imports and war-driven fuel costs offset strong domestic demand; the AUD barely moved
  • The US proposed tariffs of at least 10% on imports from around 60 countries under a Section 301 forced-labour investigation, with a higher 12.5% rate for China, India, Japan and others
  • SpaceX set a $135 per share target price for its IPO, aiming to sell 555.6 million shares to raise $75 billion, which would make it the largest IPO in history

Tuesday was one of those sessions where the news flow refused to slow down, and the common thread running through almost all of it was the same: the US-Iran conflict, now more than three months old, is still getting worse before it gets better.

The day’s most dramatic development was Iran’s missile salvo, with the IRGC firing at least ten ballistic missiles at US military bases in Kuwait, targeting Ali Al Salem Air Base in what Tehran framed as retaliation for a US strike on an oil tanker and on Qeshm Island. The attacks did not stop there. Bahrain, Saudi Arabia and Dubai all reported strikes, air raid sirens activated at US bases in Saudi Arabia, and aviation authorities suspended all flights across Kuwait, Bahrain and the UAE for a period as the Gulf’s airspace became, temporarily, a war zone. CENTCOM had earlier disabled an unladen tanker attempting to run the blockade toward Kharg Island, striking its engine room with a Hellfire missile, and multiple explosions had been reported off Qeshm Island before Iran’s retaliatory volley was launched.

Oil responded immediately, with Brent and WTI both spiking on the escalation. The pattern of exchanges is hardening into something that looks less like a ceasefire under strain and more like a formalised tit-for-tat, uncomfortably reminiscent of the Houthi cycle that eventually saw Washington pull back from its objectives in pursuit of de-escalation. For now, the risk premium is going one way.

In currency markets, the yen commanded attention as USD/JPY touched 160, the level at which Japan spent heavily on intervention in 2024. Finance Minister Katayama deployed the standard pre-intervention formulation, saying Tokyo stood ready to respond appropriately as needed, and the dollar paused at that level as traders thought better of pressing further. The warning landed alongside Japan’s cabinet approving a ¥3.1 trillion supplementary budget, funded entirely through deficit bonds, to subsidise fuel and utility bills inflated by the same war driving yen weakness. The fiscal and monetary pressures are feeding each other in a loop Tokyo has limited tools to break.

From Australia, first-quarter GDP came in at 0.3% quarter-on-quarter and 2.5% annually, both below expectations, as a surge in data centre equipment imports and war-driven fuel costs dragged on net trade despite robust domestic demand. The Australian dollar shrugged, having already priced in a soft outcome, but with the May services PMI in contraction and the RBA having raised rates three times this year, the Q2 trajectory looks considerably more challenging.

On trade, the US moved to rebuild its tariff architecture on firmer legal ground, proposing levies of at least 10% on imports from around 60 countries under a Section 301 forced-labour investigation, with a higher 12.5% rate for China, India, Japan, South Korea and others. The Supreme Court struck down Trump’s previous tariff regime in February; Section 301 is harder to challenge and the comment period, closing July 6, is designed to clear the decks before the existing Section 122 global levy expires that month.

And in a session that needed a counterpoint to the geopolitical gloom, SpaceX provided one. The company set a specific target price of $135 per share ahead of its Nasdaq roadshow, aiming to sell 555.6 million shares to raise $75 billion in what would be the largest IPO in history. The pre-roadshow fixed price is itself unconventional; it signals demand confidence at a stage when most companies are still haggling over a range.

Regional equites mainly performed strongly. Bitcoin and Ether continued their slide lower.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

最近のFX関連情報ニュース

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