ICYMI – Goldman Sachs lifts S&P 500 target to 8,000 on AI-fuelled earnings surge
Goldman Sachs has raised its S&P 500 year-end target to 8,000, citing exceptionally strong earnings growth of 24% for the year, with about half driven by AI infrastructure beneficiaries.
I had this fresh target from GS posted up yesterday, but without detail as Aussie CPI, a groundwork laying BoJ, and the holding RBNZ kept me tied up. Adding info now.
Summary: Source: Goldman Sachs research note, team led by chief US equity strategist Ben Snider, published 26 May 2026
- Goldman raised its S&P 500 year-end price target from 7,600 to 8,000, implying around 6% further upside from current levels
- The bank expects S&P 500 earnings per share to grow 24% in 2026, with roughly half of that growth attributed to AI infrastructure beneficiaries
- First-quarter blended earnings growth came in at 28.4%, the highest in approximately five years; 84% of reporting firms beat earnings estimates and 81% beat revenue expectations per FactSet
- The S&P 500 is up 9% year to date and recently completed its longest weekly winning streak since 2023
- Near-term earnings growth has accounted for around 40% of total S&P 500 gains over the past two years, with the strongest performers generally showing the strongest earnings revisions
- Goldman flagged potential headwinds including moderating momentum and historically weaker market performance heading into midterm elections
Goldman Sachs has raised its year-end target for the S&P 500 to 8,000, lifting its prior forecast of 7,600 and pointing to an earnings-driven rally that the bank says remains firmly on track despite the ongoing war in Iran.
The new target implies roughly 6% further upside from current levels and was outlined in a note published by a team led by Ben Snider, Goldman's chief US equity strategist. The bank described first-quarter earnings results as exceptionally strong and said it expects that momentum to carry through the remainder of the year, with S&P 500 earnings per share forecast to grow 24% across 2026.
The first quarter gave that forecast a solid foundation. The index posted blended earnings growth of 28.4% in the period, the highest reading in approximately five years. According to FactSet data, 84% of companies that have reported beat earnings expectations, while 81% exceeded revenue forecasts. Goldman noted that near-term earnings growth has been responsible for around 40% of the total increase in the S&P 500 over the past two years, and that the index's strongest performers this year have broadly been the stocks with the most significant upward earnings revisions.
Artificial intelligence sits at the centre of the growth story. Goldman estimates that roughly half of the index's earnings growth this year will be generated by companies identified as beneficiaries of the AI infrastructure boom, a concentration that reflects the degree to which the semiconductor and data centre buildout has become the dominant driver of corporate profit expansion. The S&P 500 is up 9% year to date and recently completed its longest consecutive weekly winning streak since 2023, with investors largely looking through the Iran conflict in favour of the AI and earnings narrative.
Goldman was measured in its optimism, noting conditions that have historically marked the end of high-valuation, high-concentration bull markets are mostly absent for now. However, the bank flagged several factors that could point to moderating returns in the months ahead, including stretched momentum in the recent rally and the historically softer market performance that tends to accompany the approach of midterm elections.
For now, the earnings story is holding and Goldman is backing it to continue. Whether AI beneficiaries can sustain the profit growth that has powered the bull run, and whether bond yields and geopolitical risk remain contained enough to let valuations hold, will determine whether 8,000 proves a target or a ceiling.
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A raised year-end target from Goldman carries weight as a sentiment anchor, and the 8,000 call implies roughly 6% further upside from current levels, giving bulls a fresh reference point. The framing of AI beneficiaries as responsible for half of index earnings growth reinforces the concentration risk already flagged elsewhere in the market, with semiconductor and AI-linked names likely to attract continued inflows. The acknowledgment of moderating returns risk and midterm election seasonality provides a mild counterweight, but is unlikely to dominate the near-term narrative given the strength of the earnings backdrop.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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