Crude oil is selling at $102.18 of $4.11 or 4.19%
The price of crude oil futures is settling at $102.18, up $4.11 or 4.19% on the day. The strong rally pushed the price back above its 200-hour moving average — currently at $100.21 — for the first time since May 5, giving buyers stronger short-term control.
Importantly for the bullish bias, once the price broke above the 200-hour moving average, buyers were able to maintain momentum and keep the price above that key technical level. That ability to hold the breakout has helped reinforce the upside move and shifted the focus toward higher resistance targets.
Following the settlement, buying pressure continued, with the price extending to a new session high of $102.72. The next major upside target comes in at the 61.8% retracement of the decline from the April high to the April low, which is located at $102.86. That retracement level also aligns with a prior swing area from April, increasing its importance as a key resistance target for traders going forward.
A move above the $102.86 level would strengthen the bullish bias further and open the door for additional upside momentum.
Fundamentally, the breakdown in US-Iran peace talks is the single biggest driver. Trump rejected Iran’s latest counterproposal over the weekend — calling it — and with that, any hope of a near-term resolution evaporated. The Strait of Hormuz, through which roughly 20% of the world’s oil supply flows, has been effectively choked off to tanker traffic since the war began in late February. No ceasefire, no supply relief. Markets are now pricing in a prolonged disruption, and every escalation in rhetoric adds another layer of risk premium to the barrel price.
But the geopolitical shock doesn’t tell the whole story. This morning’s US inflation data came in hotter than expected — CPI at 3.8% annually versus the 3.7% forecast — and energy costs are a core part of that. High oil feeds inflation, inflation keeps the Fed hawkish, and a hawkish Fed slows the economy — yet the supply shock from the Middle East is powerful enough right now to override those dampening forces and keep crude firmly bid.
With Brent crude pushing toward $108/barrel and WTI above $101, the market isn’t betting on a quick fix. It’s pricing in a new reality — one where a critical global shipping lane stays disrupted, diplomatic talks remain deadlocked, and the inflationary feedback loop keeps tightening.
The bottom line: when geography, geopolitics, and inflation all point in the same direction, oil doesn’t wait for permission to move higher.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.