CBA sees RBA on hold for rest of 2026 after third consecutive hike to 4.35%

最近のFX関連情報Central Banks

Commonwealth Bank expects the RBA to hold rates at 4.35% for the rest of 2026 before cutting in 2027, though an August hike remains possible if Q2 trimmed mean CPI surprises to the upside.

Earlier:

Summary:

  • The RBA lifted the cash rate 25 basis points to 4.35% in an 8-1 vote, the third consecutive hike, with inflation and inflation expectations remaining the board’s primary concern, according to Commonwealth Bank of Australia
  • CBA expects the RBA to remain on hold for the remainder of 2026, with the press conference indicating the board now has space to monitor developments, per the CBA note
  • An August hike remains a risk, conditional on Q2 trimmed mean CPI exceeding the RBA’s forecast, with key watch points including Federal and state budgets, wage outcomes and consumer spending, according to CBA
  • The RBA’s updated Statement on Monetary Policy revised headline CPI higher, with a peak of 4.8% now forecast for the June quarter, up from 4.2% previously, while trimmed mean CPI is seen peaking at 3.8%, per CBA’s analysis of the SMP
  • GDP growth was downgraded to 1.3% by year-end from a prior forecast of 1.8%, reflecting the income squeeze from the Middle East conflict and softer household consumption, according to CBA
  • CBA’s base case sees the RBA cutting the cash rate twice in 2027, with trimmed mean CPI returning to the 2.5% midpoint by the June quarter of 2028, per the note

Commonwealth Bank of Australia expects the Reserve Bank to hold its cash rate steady for the remainder of 2026 following the third consecutive 25 basis point hike that lifted the official rate to 4.35% in May, though the bank cautioned that a further move in August could not be ruled out.

The RBA’s Monetary Policy Board voted 8-1 in favour of the May increase, a broader consensus than the 5-4 split that delivered the March hike. CBA said the decision itself was in line with expectations, but characterised the accompanying messaging as more dovish than the rate action implied, with Governor Michele Bullock noting that three consecutive hikes left the board well placed to monitor how the economy and the Middle East conflict evolved before acting again.

CBA’s inflation outlook paints a challenging picture. The RBA’s updated forecasts now see headline CPI peaking at 4.8% in the June quarter, up from a prior forecast of 4.2%, driven primarily by the energy shock flowing from the Middle East. Trimmed mean inflation is seen peaking at 3.8% in the same period, with the 2.5% target midpoint not reached until mid-2028. CBA flagged upside risks to the Q2 trimmed mean figure and said a reading above the RBA’s own forecast would likely be the trigger for an August hike.

On growth, the bank revised its GDP forecast down to 1.3% by year-end from 1.8% previously, reflecting weaker household consumption, the income squeeze from higher fuel costs and a softening in business investment expected later in the year. The unemployment rate is seen rising gradually to 4.3% by year-end before reaching a peak of 4.7% by mid-2028, at which point CBA expects rate cuts to be firmly on the table.

Looking further out, the bank’s base case sees the RBA cutting twice in 2027 as the output gap narrows and inflation returns sustainably to target.

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CBA’s base case of a prolonged hold through the remainder of 2026, followed by cuts in 2027, implies a relatively benign trajectory for Australian short-end rates once the current inflation peak passes, though the bank’s own acknowledgement of upside risks to the August decision leaves that view vulnerable to incoming data. The downgrade to GDP growth, now forecast at just 1.3% by year-end against a prior 1.8%, signals a more pronounced economic slowdown than markets had been pricing, which could weigh on the Australian dollar and support longer-dated bonds if realised. Wage outcome decisions and the Federal Budget in the near term are the events most likely to shift the dial on RBA expectations before the June meeting.

This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.

最近のFX関連情報Central Banks

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