investingLive Americas FX news wrap 5 May: USD lower. Stocks higher. Yields lower.

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There was a number of economic releases today story with trade data from the US and Canada. The U.S. trade balance for the latest month showed a deficit of -$60.1B, widening from the prior month’s -$57.3B, but coming in better than the -$60.9B estimate. The increase in the deficit was driven primarily by a larger goods trade gap of -$88.7B, which widened by $4.1B, even as the services surplus improved to $28.4B, up $1.6B from the previous month.

On the flow side, exports rose to $320.9B (+2.0% / +$6.2B), but were outpaced by imports at $381.2B (+2.3% / +$8.7B), explaining the overall deterioration in the balance. Bottom line: trade activity picked up on both sides, but stronger import growth led to a wider deficit, even as the result modestly beat expectations.

Canada showed a trade surplus of $1.8B vs expectations of a deficit of -$2.88B.

Later ISM non-manufacturing data came in near expectations of 53.6 versus 53.7 estimate.The data showed solid headline growth but weakening breadth and demand under the surface.

The Services PMI 53.6 reading was above its 12-month average of 52.5%, which itself has now increased for a fourth straight month, signaling steady overall expansion. However, growth was less widespread, with only 4 industries expanding versus 13 in March, while new orders fell sharply by 7.1 points, offsetting gains in business activity, employment, and supplier deliveries.

Supply conditions tightened, with slower deliveries, and backlogs remained elevated, suggesting lingering capacity constraints.Trade activity was a bright spot, with exports and imports expanding for a third consecutive month.

On inflation, pressures remain firm: the Prices Index stayed elevated above 70, with no commodities declining in price and widespread increases across inputs like aluminum, copper, lumber, and petroleum products. Importantly, energy costs have not yet been fully passed through, pointing to continued upward price pressure in the months ahead.

The Bottom line: growth continues, but demand is softening, breadth is narrowing, and inflation—driven in part by energy—remains a persistent concern.

In other data, the JOLTs job opening remains solid and not deteriorating. New-home sales were higher than expectations as well but prices did come down.

In the markets, the U.S. dollar was mostly lower, but price action across the majors was driven by key technical breaks and tests.

  • The USDJPY pushed higher in the European session, finally breaking above its 100-day moving average at 157.30 after multiple days of holding that line as resistance. That break gave buyers the green light to extend toward—and ultimately above—the falling 100-hour moving average near 157.53, strengthening the bullish bias into the close. Looking ahead, the next upside target comes in against the swing area between 157.97 and 158.26. On the downside, risk shifts back to sellers on a move below the 100-hour MA (~157.50) and the 100-day MA (157.33)—key risk-defining levels for buyers.
  • The EURUSD tested a major confluence zone, with the 100- and 200-hour moving averages and the 100-day MA all clustered near 1.1707. Sellers leaned against that area, pushing the pair lower into the close. However, the decline stalled at the 200-day moving average near 1.1675, which held as support. That leaves the pair boxed in, with resistance above at the MA cluster and support below at the 200-day MA, setting up a clear range to define the next directional break.
  • The AUDUSD initially sold off following the RBA decision but rebounded strongly in the North American session. The recovery pushed the pair back above both the 200- and 100-hour moving averages (0.7167–0.7175), reinforcing near-term support. The rally extended into a swing resistance zone between 0.7194 and 0.7200, where the move stalled before rotating lower into the close near 0.7178. Going forward, the hourly MAs act as support, while 0.7200 remains the key upside barrier.
  • The GBPUSD is closing between its 100 hour MA above at 1.3552 and the 200 hour MA below at 1.3530. The price is trading at 1.3537 into the close and will take it’s short term clue from the extension outside the MA levels. Today, the price traded above and below those MAs with selling drying up below the 200 hour MA and buying drying on the move above the 100 hour MA. Traders will try again in the new day.

In fixed income, yields moved lower, with the 2-year down 2 basis points to 3.944% and the 10-year also falling 2 basis points to 4.426%, reflecting a modest bid in bonds. Meanwhile, U.S. equities continued their upward momentum, with the S&P 500, Nasdaq, and Russell 2000 all closing at record highs, underscoring a persistent risk-on tone in broader markets.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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