ANZ sees Brent above $90 for 2026 with risk of $100-plus into 2027
ANZ forecasts Brent above $90/bbl for the rest of 2026 and $80-85 in 2027, with prices potentially above $100 if Persian Gulf recovery slips to end-2027. A US-Iran peace deal could push Brent to $83-87.
Summary:
- ANZ forecasts Brent crude above $90 per barrel for the remainder of 2026 and in the range of $80 to $85 per barrel in 2027, per ANZ research
- ANZ sees the global oil market running a deficit of 1.6 million barrels per day in 2026, an assumption that factors in rising supply and weakening demand in the fourth quarter of the year, per ANZ
- ANZ said oil prices could remain above $100 per barrel for most of 2027 if the recovery in the Persian Gulf region is delayed until the end of that year, per ANZ research
- ANZ said a US-Iran peace deal would be the primary downside scenario for oil prices, potentially pushing Brent to around $83 to $87 per barrel, per ANZ research
ANZ has issued one of the more detailed oil price frameworks to emerge from the banking sector since the Hormuz closure began, forecasting Brent crude above $90 per barrel for the remainder of 2026 and a gradual retreat to $80 to $85 in 2027, while flagging a scenario in which prices remain above $100 for most of next year if the Persian Gulf recovery is pushed out to the end of 2027.
The bank’s base case for 2026 assumes the global oil market runs a deficit of 1.6 million barrels per day, a figure that already incorporates rising supply and weakening demand in the fourth quarter of the year. That supply increase reflects the expected gradual normalisation of production and export capacity as the conflict stabilises, while the demand softening in Q4 captures the economic drag that elevated energy prices are increasingly inflicting on major consuming economies. Even with those assumptions in place, the market remains firmly in deficit for the full year, underpinning the above-$90 price call.
The 2027 outlook introduces a wider range of outcomes tied directly to the pace of Persian Gulf infrastructure recovery. ANZ’s base case lands in the $80 to $85 range, implying a meaningful price decline from 2026 levels as supply constraints ease and the market moves closer to balance. However, the bank flags that if the recovery in the region is delayed until the very end of 2027, prices could hold above $100 for most of that year, a scenario that would extend the inflationary pressure currently rippling through central bank policy frameworks from Wellington to Washington.
The downside scenario ANZ identifies is a US-Iran peace deal, which the bank estimates could pull Brent down to the $83 to $87 range. That floor sits well below current levels and illustrates the scale of the geopolitical risk premium currently embedded in oil prices. The gap between the peace deal scenario and the delayed recovery scenario, potentially $15 to $20 per barrel or more, represents the range of outcomes the market is being asked to price simultaneously, with diplomatic talks, military posture and infrastructure capacity all feeding into the calculus.
ANZ’s framework arrives as a growing number of central banks, from the Bank of Korea to the Federal Reserve, are revising their rate outlooks in response to the inflationary consequences of sustained high oil prices. With Brent anchored above $90 as the base case through the end of this year, the pressure on those institutions to tighten further rather than ease is unlikely to abate in the near term.
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ANZ’s forecasts sit at the hawkish end of the current street consensus and reinforce the view that the oil market’s supply deficit is structural rather than transitory for as long as the Persian Gulf recovery is delayed. The 1.6 mb/d deficit assumption for 2026 is particularly significant because it is predicated on rising supply and weakening demand in the fourth quarter, meaning any slippage in either of those assumptions pushes the deficit wider and prices higher.
The $100-plus scenario for most of 2027 is not ANZ’s base case but the conditions that would trigger it, a Persian Gulf recovery pushed to end-2027, are plausible given the infrastructure damage already sustained.
ANZ forecasts Brent above $90/bbl for the rest of 2026 and $80-85 in 2027, with prices potentially above $100 if Persian Gulf recovery slips to end-2027. A US-Iran peace deal could push Brent to $83-87. At the other end of the range, the $83 to $87 peace deal scenario gives traders a clear downside anchor, though the gap between that level and current prices reflects just how much geopolitical risk premium the market is currently carrying.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.