The GBPUSD races higher but is stalling near a swing area ceiling. What next?
The GBPUSD moved lower in the early European session, testing a key swing area between 1.3446 and 1.3465. That move also dipped below the key 100-day moving average at 1.3465, but sellers couldn’t sustain momentum. The low reached 1.3455 before buyers stepped in and pushed the price higher.
Part of the reversal came as sharp downside momentum in USDJPY triggered broader USD selling. Fundamentally, the Bank of England held rates steady, but one member voted for a 25 bp hike, adding a slight hawkish tilt.
As the North American session got underway, the pair hovered around the converged 100- and 200-hour moving averages near 1.3510—a classic “three’s a crowd” setup defined by the current price, and the 2 hourly moving averages, signaling indecision and a potential breakout brewing.
That breakout came to the upside.
A move above the European high at 1.35345 triggered momentum buying, driving the pair toward a key swing area between 1.3575 and 1.35985—defined by prior highs from mid-April. The price reached 1.3593, just shy of the upper extreme.
So now the market has tested both ends of the range:
- Sellers had their shot below 1.3455
- Buyers had their shot near 1.3600
Neither side has taken full control.
So what next?
- Bias: Buyers have the edge while price remains near the top of the range
- Upside target: A break above 1.3600 opens the door toward 1.3725–1.37725, with the 2026 high at 1.38688 further out
- Downside risk: Failure at resistance keeps sellers in play, with a move back toward the 100/200 hour MAs near 1.3510–1.3513
The full April range has now been tested from both sides.
The next move likely comes from a break of this ceiling—or a failure that sends price rotating back lower.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.