What are the main events for today?
EUROPEAN SESSION
In the European session, the only highlight was the UK CPI report. The data showed the widely expected increase in headline inflation due to higher energy prices but the core figure eased further to 3.1% vs 3.2% prior. The bad news in this report is services inflation which remains sticky above 4% as it rose to 4.5% from 4.3% previously. This is going to keep the BoE in a neutral to hawkish stance.
AMERICAN SESSION
In the American session, we don't have anything on the agenda other than the US MBA Mortgage Applications data which is never a market-moving release.
The focus remains solely on US-Iran negotiations. Yesterday, the markets got a bit scared as it looked like the Islamabad talks were dead on arrival with Iran refusing to participate until the US blockade in the Strait of Hormuz was lifted.
The sentiment improved though after Trump extended the ceasefire deadline (unsurprisingly) to allow more time for Tehran to put forward a proposal to end the war. There's no deadline for this latest extension, so we might just get stuck in this new situation until bombs start dropping again or they finally end the war.
CENTRAL BANK SPEAKERS
- 12:15 GMT/08:15 ET - ECB's Lane (neutral - voter)
- 15:10 GMT/11:10 ET - ECB's Sleijpen (neutral - voter)
- 17:00 GMT/13:00 ET - ECB's Nagel (neutral - voter)
- 17:30 GMT/13:30 ET - ECB President Lagarde (neutral - voter)
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