Economic & event calendar Asia Wednesday, April 15, 2026. ECB President Lagarde speaking.
Lagarde spoke earlier:</p><ul><li><a href="https://investinglive.com/centralbank/ecbs-lagarde-we-are-between-the-baseline-and-adverse-scenarios-20260414/" rel="follow" data-article-link="true">ECB's Lagarde: We are between the baseline and adverse scenarios</a></li></ul><p data-start="0" data-end="299">Lagarde pushed back against growing market speculation of imminent rate hikes, stressing that policymakers have not yet formed a clear view on the path of interest rates as the economic fallout from the Iran war remains highly uncertain.</p><p data-start="301" data-end="699">Speaking to Bloomberg TV, Lagarde said the eurozone economy currently sits “between the baseline and adverse scenario” outlined in the ECB’s latest projections. That assessment is particularly important for markets: it suggests the central bank sees meaningful downside risks to growth from the energy shock, but not yet a worst-case inflation spiral that would force an aggressive policy response.</p><p data-start="701" data-end="1045">The closure of the Strait of Hormuz has driven a sharp rise in oil and gas prices, a key concern for the eurozone given its heavy reliance on imported energy. This has reignited fears of another inflation wave, with some analysts and traders bringing forward expectations for a rate hike as soon as the next policy meeting.</p><p data-start="1047" data-end="1362">However, Lagarde’s comments indicate a more cautious stance. She emphasised that it is “too early to draw conclusions” and warned against overconfidence from policymakers or markets on the direction of rates. Crucially, she declined to validate any specific rate path, reinforcing the ECB’s data-dependent approach.</p><p data-start="1364" data-end="1632">For financial markets, the takeaway is a tempering of near-term tightening expectations. While energy-driven inflation risks are clearly rising, the ECB appears equally focused on the potential hit to growth and broader uncertainty stemming from geopolitical tensions.</p><p data-start="1634" data-end="1890">Lagarde also dismissed renewed speculation about an early departure from her role, stating she would remain in position despite “clouds on the horizon,” signalling continuity in leadership during a period of heightened economic and geopolitical volatility.</p><p data-start="1892" data-end="2086" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">Overall, the ECB is signalling patience—leaving markets highly sensitive to incoming energy prices, inflation prints, and geopolitical developments as the policy outlook remains finely balanced.</p><p data-start="1892" data-end="2086" data-is-last-node="" data-is-only-node="">----
I can’t imagine she’ll be changing her message when she speaks at 2100 GMT / 1700 US Eastern time!
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.