Euro completes the round trip from the start of the Iran war

2026年4月14日最近のFX関連情報Forex

                        The euro is back to where it was when the Iran war began.

That's a good sign for peace but also for resilience. The energy shock is a big hit for Europe but the market is pricing in a transitory effect. Notably, the IMF is out with its latest growth forecasts and sees GDP this year at 1.1% compared to 1.3% in January. That's not impressive growth but there could be upside if Hormuz is resolved relatively quickly and oil infrastructure isn't overly damaged. Note that before the war, European stock markets were also rising rapidly. If that resumes, we could see some positive knock ons to both the currency and the economy as well. For the currency, the big thing to watch is the ECB. The market is pricing in a 34% chance of a hike on April 30 and that rises to 87% for the June 11 meeting. By July, there are 39 bps of hikes priced in. Officials have been quick to fight back against rising inflation expectations due to the energy price shock but I'd imagine they will be cautious at this point. There are still more than two weeks until the next decision and much can change in the interim, so I wouldn't expect any strong signals. Even by April 30, it's unlikely to be clear how the energy system will sort itself out. Technically, there is some short term work to do with some minor highs up to 1.1834 blocking the way. We may consolidate before that and wait for the 'all clear' on Iran but if/when it breaks, there is a solid case to be made for a return to 1.2000. I think the contours of the peace matter here and if Iran is left with a toll on Hormuz, it essentially breaks the US monopoly of the seas and that's inevitably bad for the US dollar. This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.

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