Swiss bankers expect SNB to maintain zero policy rate through to next year
The survey showed that all the Swiss bankers surveyed are expecting the SNB to keep its policy rate at 0% for the rest of this year. And looking to 2027, 60% are expecting that to still be the case through the whole of next year.
The remaining respondents on the other side of that balance are expecting the SNB to start hiking interest rates in 2027 instead. All but one respondent expect a push up in the policy rate to 0.25%, with the single outlier response being for a move to 0.50% by the end of next year.
The directional balance is quite an interesting one I would say. Despite inflation pressures growing across the globe, Switzerland is one that hasn't followed suit for the most part. Even the latest inflation numbers here continue to reflect more deflationary risks rather than inflationary risks.
For now, policymakers can take heart in the fact that inflation isn't crossing over towards the zero mark or negative territory just yet. And that is also likely due to the US-Iran conflict helping to prop up price pressures globally. Without that spillover impact, it might be a whole different conversation for Switzerland this year.
The SNB already got a get-out-of-jail-free card from the Covid pandemic but they failed to capitalise on that. I fear it is going to be just a matter of time before we revisit the deflation conversation and the idea of unconventional monetary policy setting again i.e. NIRP and/or QE. Call me skeptical but I still feel the balance of risks are tilted to the downside for Switzerland in the big picture, amid a less obvious upside spillover compared to everywhere else.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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