Bill Gates undermines everything the AI leaders have been saying
Yesterday, I wrote about how AI leaders can't be trusted to tell us the truth about what's coming. I lamented that they've suddenly switched their stance on AI job losses at exactly the same time that they need to raise trillions and get government backing for huge infrastructure projects. That's not a coincidence.
Today, that view got a powerful endorsement from Bill Gates. The Microsoft founder remains among the richest people int he world but now owns very little of the shares as he's steadily sold and donated stock.
Today, he published a crucial essay to raise alarm bells about the lack of preparation and the scale of disruption that's coming.
"I don’t see evidence that leaders, experts, and communities are confronting the challenges adequately. There is no plan to ease the entry into the AI era," he writes.
He also deconstructs the lame justification that "technology has always created new jobs".
"We have no experience with a technology that can be adopted quickly or that can think and move like a human. When the PC came along, it took twenty years to significantly change how we worked because the software had to be developed, the price had to come down, and people had to learn how to use the tools and incorporate them into their business processes. AI, on the other hand, runs on the devices we already have, and it uses natural language. We don’t have to adapt to it because it can adapt to us. It can watch the same training video that is used to train human workers and learn from existing data."
That's a powerful paragraph and he goes on to talk about how other transitions took generations. He warns about massive job losses, highlighting 25% unemployment in the Great Depression.
He writes:
Robots and AI combined can create a vicious cycle. After one company adopts them and uses the savings to lower its prices, its competitors will feel immense pressure to do the same. If existing companies don’t adopt them, then start-ups will. Many people will shift to other jobs, but the turmoil of losing work, getting retrained, and finding other work will be significant. Market forces will make adoption go faster and faster and, unless we intervene, there will be fewer good jobs available and the benefits will accrue to a small group.
So while the AI leaders are now telling everyone not to worry about the future, and Elon Musk says money won't matter in 10 years, Gates writes:
We have to think now about how to reduce job losses so that everyone can share in the prosperity that AI creates
Pessimistically, he says that isn't happening. He also doesn't stop there as he warns about AI weapons, fraud, disinformation and surveilance. Finally, he highlights the damaging effects of AI companionship, particularly on kids and the deterioration of critical thinking.
Perhaps the most-surprising part of his essay is one of his solutions: taxing AI.
I believe we should tax AI tokens and robots. Right now, if you’re an employer and you hire someone, you pay payroll taxes on their earnings. But if you buy a robot, you can usually write it off right away as a business expense. The tax system nudges you toward replacing people with machines.
He argues that a tax would slow the rush to AI. These are radical ideas and I think they're worth listening too, at least moreso then the people who are trying to raise trillions and are promising there will be no pain.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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