Kickstart video for August 12: US Dollar is lower ahead of key CPI report

2026年8月12日最近のFX関連情報Technical Analysis

The U.S. dollar is starting the session lower against the major currencies. The dollar is slightly lower versus the euro, with EURUSD up 0.03%, and lower against the British pound, with GBPUSD up 0.15%. Against the Japanese yen, the dollar is also slightly lower, with USDJPY down 0.12%.

In the Kickstart video above, I take a technical look at EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD, with the focus on the three things every trader should know: the bias, the risk and the targets.

Where do the buyers have control? Where do the sellers have control? What levels would change the bias, and where are the targets if the price starts to trend?

Know the bias, understand the risk, and identify the targets. Those are the three things every trader should be aware of before putting on a trade.

Today, the July U.S. CPI report is due at 8:30 AM ET, with inflation expected to rebound modestly on a monthly basis while easing slightly year over year. The core readings remain the key focus, particularly for expectations surrounding the Fed's September meeting.

Headline CPI: +0.1% m/m expected vs. -0.4% prior
Headline CPI: +3.4% y/y expected vs. +3.5% prior
Core CPI: +0.2% m/m expected vs. 0.0% prior
Core CPI: +2.5% y/y expected vs. +2.6% prior

Lower energy prices should help contain headline inflation, while core inflation is expected to remain somewhat sticky. Goldman Sachs is slightly softer than consensus, forecasting +0.19% for core and +0.05% for headline CPI. BofA is in line with consensus at +0.2% core and +0.1% headline.

From a market perspective, the risk/reward may be asymmetric. A hotter-than-expected report could increase expectations for a September Fed hike, although the August CPI report will still be important. Conversely, a softer report could significantly reduce September hike expectations, pressure the U.S. dollar and yields, and provide support for equities. The market is now expecting a 46% chance of a hike for September, down from about 50% yesterday.

IN the middle east, Iran is pushing back against reports of a possible ceasefire extension with the U.S., saying there is no existing agreement to extend. A senior Iranian source told Reuters that Washington violated the arrangement just 48 hours after it was reached and later abandoned it altogether. Talks are instead focused on whether the U.S. will return to the conditions outlined in the original memorandum of understanding, including a timetable for meeting its commitments, but Iran says there has been no progress. The comments undercut earlier speculation about extending the agreement beyond August 17 and helped lift oil prices from their session lows.

Crude oil futures are trading at $83.55. That's up $0.34 on the day. The high price reached $84.35. The low price is at $82.46.

In the pre-market for US stocks the futures are implying