What is the distribution of forecasts for the US NFP?
The ranges of estimates are important in terms of market reaction because when the actual data deviates from the expectations, it creates a surprise effect. Another important input in market's reaction is the distribution of forecasts.
In fact, although we can have a range of estimates, most forecasts might be clustered on the upper bound of the range, so even if the data comes out inside the range of estimates but on the lower bound of the range, it can still create a surprise effect.
Non-Farm Payrolls
- 10K to 140K range of estimates
- 70K-80K range most clustered
- 80K consensus
Unemployment Rate
- 4.3% (43%)
- 4.2% (56%) - consensus
- 4.1% (1%)
Average Hourly Earnings Y/Y
- 3.6% (9%)
- 3.5% (82%) - consensus
- 3.4% (9%)
Average Hourly Earnings M/M
- 0.3% (89%) - consensus
- 0.2% (11%)
Although the NFP report is generally one of the most market-moving economic releases, the US CPI next week should be more important because the Fed is focused on inflation. Policymakers have been repeating that the labour market is stable and that it's not a source of inflation.
That's because wage growth has been easing steadily since 2022 and it's hovering around pre-covid levels. Therefore, I would focus more on average hourly earnings rather than the employment numbers.
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