Gold fails to extend gains as traders await the US CPI and Middle East developments

2026年7月31日最近のFX関連情報Commodities

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Gold strengthened following the FOMC decision despite three dissenters voting for a rate hike. The consensus was that Fed's Logan and Fed's Hammack would prefer a rate increase, but we also got Fed's Kashkari.

I guess the fact that Fed's Kashkari is a hawkish member, combined with the roughly 30% probability of a rate hike that was priced in before the release, led to some hedges getting unwound, even though nothing has changed in the bigger picture. The post-decision gains were eventually fully erased.

Fed Chair Warsh didn't offer any clues about the next meeting as he continues to limit forward guidance. Therefore, the next big event will be the US CPI report on the 12th of August as the data will likely decide whether the Fed hikes in September or not.

On the geopolitical side, the situation in the Middle East has barely changed, although Trump’s rhetoric seems to have softened a bit. Nevertheless, until we get a clear de-escalation, inflation risks will remain skewed to the upside.

Yesterday, gold got a boost from strong selling in the US dollar as Japan and South Korea intervened in the FX market. The moves in the USD/JPY pair were massive. Those flows spilled over to other markets which coupled with month-end trading made for a very noisy and volatile day.

All in all, we are fundamentally in the same position we were before the FOMC meeting, so now it’s just about waiting for the US CPI and the US-Iran developments.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, we can see that gold is breaking above the downward trendline. We can expect the buyers to step in around these levels with a defined risk below the broken trendline to position for a rally into the next trendline around the 4,400 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the trendline to pile in for a drop into the 3,885 level next.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4 hour chart, we can see the price action has been mostly rangebound since late June, and this leaves traders with little to do other than waiting for technical breakouts or fundamental catalysts. The buyers will need the price to break above the 4,200 resistance to gain more conviction for a reversal of the trend. The sellers, on the other hand, will likely step in around the resistance with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into the 3,885 level.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1 hour chart, we have a minor resistance zone around the 4,120 level where the price got rejected from several times in the past weeks. The sellers will likely step in around the resistance with a defined risk above it to keep targeting new lows, while the buyers will look for a break to increase the bullish bets into the 4,200 resistance. The red lines define the average daily range for today.