Fed Warsh: the economy is showing impressive resilience. We remain resolute to deliver price stability

2026年7月30日最近のFX関連情報Central Banks

What were levels ahead of the Fed Chair Press conference. 

U.S. Stocks

• Dow Jones: 51,957.19 (-795.10, -1.51%)
• S&P 500: 7,392.95 (-35.82, -0.48%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 24,798.83 (-87.08, -0.35%)
• Russell 2000: 2,924.86 (-28.94, -0.98%)
• Nasdaq 100: 27,605.74 (-157.40, -0.57%)

U.S. Treasury Yields

• 2-Year: 4.2706% (-0.64 bps)
• 3-Year: 4.3095% (+0.65 bps)
• 5-Year: 4.3820% (+2.10 bps)
• 7-Year: 4.5048% (+2.48 bps)
• 10-Year: 4.6366% (+3.26 bps)
• 20-Year: 5.1554% (+4.14 bps)
• 30-Year: 5.1534% (+3.94 bps)

Commodities & Bitcoin

• WTI Crude Oil: $84.44 (+$5.32, +6.72%)
• Gold: $4,065.07 (+$36.77, +0.91%)
• Silver: $58.1162 (+$1.0072, +1.76%)
• Bitcoin: $64,012 (+161, +0.25%)

Market Snapshot: Ahead of Kevin Warsh's first Fed press conference, equities remained under pressure, led by a sharp 1.5% decline in the Dow. Treasury yields were mixed, with the curve steepening as longer-dated yields moved higher. Meanwhile, oil surged nearly 7% and precious metals advanced, reflecting heightened geopolitical concerns and inflation uncertainty going into the Fed Chair's remarks.

Prepared comments from Fed Chair:

• Discussion was collegial
• The economy is showing impressive resilience even with the recent shocks
• the committee remains resolute to deliver price stability.
• The committee is a steering clear of forecasting
• the 5 years of high inflation has left an impression that is hard to shake that Fed's implicit price target was above 2%.
• Says that there is no soft target only one target and its 2%.
• Inflation cannot be cured in 9 weeks. There was nothing in there about our discussions or strategy
• Nominal and real yields are material higher
• some of the increases between FOMC meetings are among the most significant in decades.
• Markets are paying attention to the ball and not the referee.
• Markets will continue to respond in direction and magnitude as they see fit.
• The most striking feature is the strong growth in investment. 
• Investment is helping to maintain the growth and laying the groundwork for future growth.
• Vigorous discussion centered on 4 questions. 1.  Implications on high inflation over the last 5 years.  2. Considerd the recent economic shocks an effects on output and employment.  3.  Talked about price increases arising from this shocks. Do the changes lead to a broader inflation dynamic  4. Discussed monetary policy tools and strategies. 

Q&A

• I am trying to get an unfiltered message from the market.
• Trying not to interfere with the market signals. 
• We are observing but trying to stay out of it. 
• Interpreting markets is an imperfect business.
• Economy output is solid, labor market solid – steady.
• Bond market is saying that as well
• We have not done much, but the bond market has been doing work.
• Asked for a good family fight and got one
• There was a lot of agreement that I heard that we have the power to deliver stable prices.
• Like to believe that the committee shares my views that the historic problem with data dependence is the data and dependence.
• The committee cares about trends on the data.
• Do not want to leave impression we are breathlessly waiting for incoming data.
• I would not say we over relied on a single piece of data.
• Rates are higher than they have been 42 days ago. Markets have moved rates higher.. Markets have made their judgments
• monetary policy matters not just by what we say or do, monetary policy matters by how it affects the real economy. The prices in the market are one of the ways how policy affects the economy.

3:47 PM ET :The S&P and the NASDAQ indices have moved back into positive territory with the S&P now up 0.09% and the NASDAQ index up 0.41%. The US dollar continues to weaken. The EURUSD moved above the high from last Thursday at 1.1435 and is approaching the high from last week's trading from Monday at 1.1449. The 38.2% retracement target comes in at 1.14618.

• Watchful thinking not watchful waiting.
• I think there was a miss impression that we were more tolerable of a somewhat higher inflation target.
• We will deliver the 2% target.
• A lot of our focus was on understanding underlying inflation dynamics amid shocks.
• We take the shocks seriously. There have been a number of them hitting the economy.
• To what extent are shocks broadening in effect to prices
• I would not characterize what we did as a pause.
• Would characterize what we did as a rigorous review of the economic situation. We reviewed the hard questions. We also reviewed what our own homework is to resolve those questions.
• If you were to describe this as a pause, financial markets would take the other side of that. Market rates reacted.
• Have not begun to consider what we will go into Jackson Hole speech.
• Historically it has been a setting up speech of what was happening in the fall. I have not made any judgment as far that.
• I would like Jackson Hole to frame the big questions.
• I will be checking with taskforces before Jackson Hole.

Impressions are that Warsh is truly hands-off. He is okay with the market doing the Fed's work and helping to tell the story. In a way,  He is leaving his ego at the door. That the Fed knows it all.  It is almost like the Fed funds rate is not that important.  He sees the economy as being "solid", and with rate going higher in the market, it reflects the view.

• I think we have a reasonable sense of what aggregate supply and demand are
• Surging capital expenditures around AI make that judgment harder for the moment.
• We don't endorse any market move, but watch them with keen interest.
• Surprise is not the objective function.
• What we are working toward is how to make the best decisions.
• Markets should be playing the ball, not the referee
• We are not interested in spoon feeding the markets
• We did not come into this meeting constrained.
• In terms of reaction function, any central banker when he sees stable employment and underlying inflation moving higher, is more inclined to tighten policy.
• In a crisis mode, providing for guidance is prudent, but in benign moments it is not.
• PCE inflation is the 2% target.  But I am looking at a broader view of inflation. It is not a perfect science, but we have a data project that is separating the noise from the signal. 
• The inflation remit itself is quite narrow, determined by PCE.
• What we do is not just what we say.  If I look at the treasury curve, the USD. This committee does own it and believes - has credibility - we will deliver.  
• We are focused like a laser on delivery
• Markets have tightened financial conditions in the inter-meeting. And that has provided us some comfort, that we have the ability to deliver.
• We are not going to be constrained by market prices. Markets can be very good source of information. They are not a determinative source or imperfect source. But if we fog it up with our opinions, leading the plane would be more difficult.
• Just try to make sure that source of information is as direct and unfiltered as possible.
• Between now and year-end, I am committed to press conferences this year
• I felt a group of professionals eager to roll up their sleeves and have a family fight and eager to reform the way that the Fed does policy.

U.S. Stocks

• Dow Jones: 52,103.22 (-649.06, -1.23%)
• S&P 500: 7,419.28 (-9.49, -0.13%)
• Nasdaq Composite: 24,926.47 (+49.56, +0.20%)
• Russell 2000: 2,942.91 (-10.89, -0.37%)
• Nasdaq 100: 27,784.33 (+21.19, +0.08%)

U.S. Treasury Yields

• 2-Year: 4.2253% (-5.17 bps)
• 3-Year: 4.2711% (-3.19 bps)
• 5-Year: 4.3592% (-0.18 bps)
• 7-Year: 4.4929% (+1.29 bps)
• 10-Year: 4.6387% (+3.47 bps)
• 20-Year: 5.1786% (+6.46 bps)
• 30-Year: 5.1658% (+6.98 bps)

Currencies

• EUR/USD: 1.1457 (+0.63%)
• USD/JPY: 163.30 (USD -0.32%)
• GBP/USD: 1.3376 (+0.68%)
• USD/CHF: 0.8138 (USD -0.62%)
• USD/CAD: 1.4025 (USD -0.57%)
• AUD/USD: 0.6985 (+0.17%)
• NZD/USD: 0.5822 (+0.63%)

Commodities & Bitcoin

• WTI Crude Oil: $84.37 (+$5.25, +6.64%)
• Gold: $4,100.14 (+$71.84, +1.78%)
• Silver: $58.8272 (+$1.7182, +3.01%)
• Bitcoin: $64,309 (+458, +0.72%)

Markets turned more constructive during Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference. The Nasdaq and Nasdaq 100 climbed back into positive territory while losses in the Dow and S&P 500 narrowed considerably. In rates, the 2-year Treasury yield fell more than 5 basis points, suggesting investors viewed the Fed's message as somewhat less hawkish on the near-term policy outlook, while longer-term yields moved higher, steepening the yield curve. The U.S. dollar weakened broadly against the major currencies, with the euro, pound, Australian dollar, and New Zealand dollar all posting gains. Meanwhile, oil remained sharply higher on geopolitical concerns, and gold and silver extended their rallies as traders continued to seek inflation and geopolitical hedges.

This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.

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