As London/European traders head for the exit, the markets are scared of the Fed (and war)

2026年7月30日最近のFX関連情報Stocks

As the European and London traders head toward the close, stocks have moved lower, yield are higher and so is are oil prices. The markets are anxious about the Fed with the chance of a hike up to about 35% as Fed Chair Warsh (and the Fed voters) ponder the "for" and "against" choices. Recall at the last meeting the Fed Chair was more hawkish and the 2 year has reacted appropriately with a move higher. Looking at the the European stock market, major indices closed mostly lower today as the selling pressure in AI, semiconductor and other technology shares continued to weigh on sentiment ahead of this afternoon's Federal Reserve decision. The UK's FTSE 100 bucked the trend with a modest gain, helped by strength in defensive and commodity-related stocks, while Spain's IBEX 35 led the declines. A snapshot of the market shows:

Germany (DAX): 25,448.77, -15.25 points (-0.06%)
France (CAC 40): 8,408.28, -50.51 points (-0.60%)
UK (FTSE 100): 10,908.40, +37.39 points (+0.34%)
Spain (IBEX 35): 19,390.30, -336.70 points (-1.71%)
Italy (FTSE MIB): 51,443.10, -255.08 points (-0.49%)

The benchmark 10 year European bond yields moved higher across the board as traders remained cautious ahead of the Fed decision and continued to price in the possibility that interest rates will stay higher for longer. Italy and the UK saw the largest increases in yields.

Germany 10-year: 3.156%, +4.0 bps
France 10-year: 3.955%, +6.0 bps
UK 10-year: 5.036%, +8.2 bps
Spain 10-year: 3.622%, +6.3 bps
Italy 10-year: 3.999%, +9.0 bps

U.S. stocks are also trading sharply lower with the Dow down more than 800 points and the Nasdaq lower by over 1%. Much of the weakness continues to center around AI and chip stocks as investors take profits after a tremendous run higher. With the Fed decision and Chair Kevin Warsh's press conference still ahead, traders are also reducing risk into the event.

Dow: 51,929.18, -823.10 points (-1.56%)
S&P 500: 7,365.83, -62.94 points (-0.85%)
Nasdaq: 24,590.12, -286.80 points (-1.15%)
Russell 2000: 2,913.91, -39.89 points (-1.35%)
Nasdaq 100: 27,398.72, -364.41 points (-1.31%)

Treasury yields are higher across the curve, with the front end leading the move as traders continue to price out some easing expectations and position ahead of today's Fed announcement. The expectation is still for unchanged, but there is a 35% chance of a hike

2-year: 4.3262%, +4.9 bps
5-year: 4.3522%, +4.9 bps
10-year: 4.6427%, +3.9 bps
30-year: 5.1208%, +2.5 bps

In other markets, crude oil is the standout performer, climbing nearly 7% on renewed geopolitical concerns. The rise in yields has kept pressure on gold and silver, while Bitcoin is little changed on the day.

WTI crude: $84.42, +6.51%
Gold: $4,012.80, -0.38%
Silver: $57.05, -0.10%
Bitcoin: $63,944, +0.15%

Of course the day does not end with the rate decision. After the close Meta and Microsoft will announce earnings along with: