The USD Is modestly higher to kickstart the NA trading for July 28. What are the charts saying?
The USD is higher vs the 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD. The gains are modest with changes at 0.11% of less. IN the video above I take a look at those currency pairs from a technical perspective and outline the bias, the risks and the targets for each so you can map your course for trading today.
Overnight, the RBA Governor Michele Bullock maintained a cautiously hawkish tone, emphasizing that inflation remains too high and that the central bank remains prepared to raise interest rates again if needed. However, she also stressed that monetary policy works with long and variable lags, making it too early to determine whether the tightening already delivered will be sufficient to bring inflation back to target.
Bullock said the key question facing the Board is whether current policy is restrictive enough to continue slowing inflation. She acknowledged that underlying inflation has evolved broadly as expected and demand growth is moderating, but noted that non-labor cost pressures remain elevated and that further easing in both demand and the labor market will likely be needed to fully restore price stability.
When asked about the next policy meeting, Bullock declined to provide any guidance, saying she does not know what the Board will decide. Instead, she reiterated that any decision will depend on incoming data and whether policymakers conclude inflation is continuing to move lower under the current level of policy restraint.
Despite the hawkish rhetoric, the Australian dollar showed little reaction (It is lower). Markets appear unconvinced that another rate hike is imminent, instead viewing Bullock's comments as keeping the door open rather than signaling a clear intention to tighten further. With policymakers also noting it is too early to judge the economic impact of the recent oil price shock, traders continue to await additional inflation and labor market data before reassessing the outlook for Australian interest rates
The Middle East remains a key focus for energy markets, although geopolitical tensions have eased somewhat as the U.S.-Iran pause in hostilities enters its third day. Crude oil prices continue to drift lower as traders scale back fears of an immediate supply disruption through the Strait of Hormuz, but several developments suggest the situation remains fluid.
- U.S.-Iran pause holds: The temporary halt in hostilities between the U.S. and Iran has now entered its third day, helping reduce the geopolitical risk premium in oil prices.
- Oman continues mediation: Oman has reportedly presented Iran with a proposal aimed at preserving stability around the Strait of Hormuz and encouraging further diplomatic engagement.
- Israeli concerns remain: Israel's Defense Minister said the country strongly desires to strike Iranian energy facilities but claimed the U.S. is discouraging such action, highlighting ongoing differences between the allies.
- Shipping remains cautious: Italian energy services firm Saipem said it plans to send ten vessels through the Strait of Hormuz during the second half of the year but will wait for a safe operating window before proceeding.
- Russian refinery disruption: Russia's Tyumen oil refinery reportedly halted operations following a drone attack, underscoring that energy infrastructure remains vulnerable beyond the Middle East.
- OPEC+ steady output expected: Delegates reportedly expect OPEC+ to keep oil production unchanged after the planned September increase, suggesting the group is comfortable with current supply levels despite the recent decline in crude prices.
For now, diplomacy is keeping oil prices under pressure, but traders remain alert to headlines from the region, as any setback in negotiations or renewed military escalation could quickly reverse the recent decline in crude. Crude oil is trading at $81.18 down -$0.78% on the day.
U.S. stock futures are pointing to another mixed open after Monday's similarly divided session, as investors continue rotating beneath the surface of the market ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve decision and a packed week of earnings. On Monday, the Dow Jones Industrial Average gained 0.51%, the S&P 500 gained 0.02%, and the Nasdaq fell -0.62%, with renewed selling pressure in semiconductor and AI-related stocks offsetting strength in industrial and value-oriented names.This morning, futures continue that theme:
Dow Jones:+353 points
S&P 500:-11 points
Nasdaq:-298 points
The cautious tone comes as investors prepare for one of the busiest earnings weeks of the quarter. Microsoft and Meta Platforms report after tomorrow's close, while Apple and Amazon headline Thursday's after-market releases. With four of the "Magnificent Seven" reporting over the next three days, traders appear reluctant to add exposure to large-cap technology ahead of results, contributing to the continued divergence between the Dow and the tech-heavy Nasdaq. The combination of earnings, the Fed decision, and several key economic reports could make for a volatile second half of the week.
The earnings calendar remains busy ahead of this week's marquee technology reports from Microsoft, Meta, Apple, and Amazon. Results this morning have been generally positive, with several companies topping expectations and a handful raising guidance, although Boeing was a notable disappointment.
- Boeing (BA) – MISSED expectations. Adjusted EPS -$0.76 vs. -$0.28 expected; revenue $24.6B vs. $24.26B expected (revenue beat, earnings miss). Shares are up 3.55%
- Corning (GLW) – BEAT on earnings, MISSED on revenue. Adjusted EPS $0.78 vs. $0.76 expected; revenue $4.41B vs. $4.63B expected. Shares are down sharply by -15.72%
- Sherwin-Williams (SHW) – BEAT expectations. EPS $3.70 vs. $3.52 expected; revenue $6.80B vs. $6.60B expected. Raised full-year adjusted EPS guidance. Shares are up 5.75%
- PayPal (PYPL) – BEAT expectations. Adjusted EPS $1.38 vs. $1.28 expected; revenue $8.68B vs. $8.48B expected. Shares are down -2.09%
- Coca-Cola (KO) – BEAT expectations. Adjusted EPS $0.97 vs. $0.93 expected; revenue $13.4B vs. $13.17B expected. Shares are up 4.33%
- Royal Caribbean (RCL) – BEAT expectations. Adjusted EPS $4.21 vs. $3.98 expected; revenue $4.83B vs. $4.82B expected. Raised full-year guidance. Shares are down -1.0%
- United Parcel Service (UPS) – BEAT expectations. Adjusted EPS $1.76 vs. $1.66 expected; revenue $22.81B vs. $21.86B expected. Raised full-year revenue outlook. Shares are up 1.02%.
- 2-year yield:4.3056%, down 1.7 bps
- 5-year yield:4.387%, down 1.5 bps
- 10-year yield:4.628%, down 1.2 bps
- 30-year yield:5.118%, down -0.6 bp
The modest decline in yields reflects a wait-and-see approach as markets look for fresh economic signals and any clues from this week's Fed meeting on the path of monetary policy.
The North American session features a solid lineup of U.S. economic releases, highlighted by the Conference Board's Consumer Confidence report at 10:00 AM ET. Investors will also digest the latest trade balance, wholesale inventories, home price data, and the Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index for fresh clues on the strength of the U.S. economy ahead of Wednesday's Federal Reserve policy decision.- 8:30 AM ET – USD Goods Trade Balance (Est. -$100.3B vs. Prior -$105.9B)
- 8:30 AM ET – USD Preliminary Wholesale Inventories m/m (Est. 0.4% vs. Prior 0.1%)
- 9:00 AM ET – USD House Price Index (HPI) m/m (Est. 0.1% vs. Prior -0.1%)
- 9:00 AM ET – USD S&P/Case-Shiller 20-City Home Price Index y/y (Est. 1.3% vs. Prior 1.1%)
- 10:00 AM ET – USD Conference Board Consumer Confidence (Est. 92.4 vs. Prior 91.2)
- 10:00 AM ET – USD Richmond Fed Manufacturing Index (Est. 7 vs. Prior 4)
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