Iran says any decision to reopen the Strait of Hormuz depends on security considerations
As a reminder, the Strait of Hormuz has reverted back to a de facto closure as the US and Iran are engaging in military strikes once again. And with that, the US has also reimposed their naval blockade at the other end of the strait. As such, both sides have pretty much hit the reset button to the ceasefire deal/memorandum of understanding.
For the time being, the latest shiptracking data shows that traffic along the strait has gone back all the way down. And by that, I mean to the lowest point during the peak of the conflict.
In terms of verified crossings, there are less than 10 ships transiting the Strait of Hormuz per day since 18 July. And even if accounting for shadow fleet crossings, the numbers being reported aren't all too encouraging with that being around 13-19 vessels per day over the weekend.
Mind you, oil and gas shipments have pretty much hit a standstill as a result. Any oil tankers that are passing through are all either belonging to Iran or at least Chinese-linked. And since 18 July, only one VLCC supertanker managed to cross the strait. As for LNG tankers, that figure has been a big fat zero since 16 July already. That's a major setback for Qatar especially.
So, what's next?
Iran continues to throw the ball back to the US' court, just as it was before the ceasefire deal was signed at the end of last month. The onus was upon the US to make concessions, allowing for both sides to make a show out of it as Iran also half-heartedly allowed some vessels to pass through the Strait of Hormuz before closing it down again.
And it feels like we may just get a rinse and repeat of all of that once again.
The latest headlines suggest that Trump is either considering a renewed ceasefire deal or going all out in engaging in a full scale war with Iran next. The latter seems unlikely with that being quite a drastic shake up and he will come under heavy scrutiny back home, especially ahead of the midterm elections.
And with any renewed ceasefire deal, don't expect things to be any better than the first one. Even if the next one may last longer, it is not going to be any different with Iran just playing to the optics when it comes to any "reopening" of the strait while continuing to buy for time in wanting the US to offer up more concessions in terms of oil sanctions and/or frozen assets.
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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