Oil: US launches new Iran strikes again Monday as Saudi coalition warns Houthis with force
The intensifying US Iran conflict keeps a geopolitical risk premium firmly embedded in crude prices, with traders weighing the credibility of ceasefire signals against the reality of an expanding air campaign. Brent and WTI both touched fresh one month highs before paring gains on reports of a proposed cooling off period, only to firm again once the Houthi blockade threat reintroduced supply side anxiety. The market's reaction suggests participants are treating potential Gulf shipping disruption as the more durable driver than diplomatic overtures. A record volume of crude currently at sea may cap the scale of further upside, but any confirmed closure of Hormuz or a widening of the Houthi campaign into the Red Sea would likely force a sharper repricing.
--- Washington has opened a tenth night of strikes on Iran and Riyadh's coalition is threatening force against Houthi blockade threats, while oil prices firm near one month highs as traders balance mediation hopes against a rapidly escalating multi front Gulf conflict.
Earlier:
- CBS News: Nearly 100 U.S. Troops injured in Iranian attacks. Most return to duty
- Axios: Trump is focusing on making Iran pay for violations of MOU and recent US deaths
- Trump: Iran will pay for killing American soldiers many times over
Summary:
- US Central Command confirmed a new round of strikes against Iran, marking a tenth consecutive night of the campaign
- The Saudi led coalition in Yemen said it will respond with force after Houthis declared a naval blockade on the kingdom
- Brent crude settled around $89 a barrel, up circa 1.3%, after touching its highest level since mid June
- WTI crude settled near $82.50 a barrel, up roughly 1%, after earlier hitting its highest level in over a month
- Iranian officials floated a proposed ten day pause in strikes to help revive last month's interim US Iran deal
- Tanker transits through the Strait of Hormuz fell sharply, with a record volume of crude currently sitting at sea
The United States launched a new round of air strikes against Iran on Mondat 4pm US Eastern time, marking the tenth consecutive night of the campaign, as Washington signalled it may widen the scope and pace of its military action further. US Central Command said the latest strikes, ordered by the president, were aimed at further degrading Iranian capabilities used to threaten commercial shipping through the Strait of Hormuz. Officials have in recent days indicated the administration is weighing an escalation that could bring the conflict's intensity back toward the peak seen earlier in the war.
The expanding air campaign came alongside a refreshed flashpoint in the Gulf. Yemen's Iran aligned Houthi movement said it would impose a naval blockade on Saudi Arabia, reopening a potential new front in the broader conflict and raising the threat to global energy supplies and shipping well beyond the Gulf. The Saudi led coalition responded by saying it would meet the threat with force, and confirmed it has begun implementing additional safety measures for vessels transiting the Bab el Mandeb Strait.
Crude prices reflected the volatile backdrop. Benchmarks gapped higher at the open on Sunday evening US time to touch their highest levels in more than a month, with Brent nearing $91 a barrel and WTI approaching $85. Prices then pared much of that advance through the session on signs a diplomatic off ramp might still be available, after Iranian officials suggested mediators had proposed roughly a ten day pause in strikes to help revive an interim deal reached with Washington last month. Iran's foreign ministry said it would not abandon talks and that intermediaries had been passing messages to Tehran in recent days.
That optimism proved short lived. Renewed rhetoric from Washington and the Houthi blockade announcement pushed prices back into positive territory by the close, with Brent settling around $89 a barrel, up circa 1.3%, and WTI finishing near $82.50 up roughly 1%. Iran's Revolutionary Guards separately said two oil tankers had been immobilised in the strait after attempting what it called an unsafe southern route, though it remained unclear whether the incident was linked to a separate attack on two vessels managed by a Greek shipping firm off the coast of Oman.
Shipping data pointed to a sharp slowdown in Hormuz traffic, with transits falling to roughly half the previous day's level. One geopolitical risk analyst estimated that around 2.5 million barrels a day of Saudi output is now exposed to the Houthi threat, while other analysts noted that a record volume of crude currently at sea, put at more than 1.3 billion barrels, could help cap further price gains even if tensions keep escalating.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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