China’s ‘teapot’ independent refiners buy Qatari, Iraqi and UAE oil over Iranian
The build-up of unsold Iranian cargoes at sea, arriving just as US sanctions snap back into force, points to a near-term glut of Iranian barrels searching for buyers, which could pressure Iranian Light discounts wider even as sellers have so far held firm at $2 to $3 a barrel under Brent. The sharper $5 to $8 a barrel discounts secured on non-Iranian Gulf grades show rival producers aggressively defending market share in China's teapot complex following Hormuz's reopening, a dynamic that could keep Iranian export flows structurally lower even if political tensions ease. China's Iranian crude imports falling to 556,000 bpd, the lowest since January 2023, alongside this week's renewed slowdown in strait traffic after fresh US-Iran strikes, both point to continued volatility in Iranian flows and elevated uncertainty over how quickly Tehran can clear its backlog once sanctions formally return.
---
China's independent refiners are quietly turning away from Iranian oil just as sanctions bite again.
Summary:
- Iranian oil supplies at sea are rising after Tehran ramped up exports during the interim US peace deal, but sales have slowed as China's independent teapot refiners in Shandong turn to cheaper crude from Iraq, the UAE and Qatar.
- The return of US sanctions this week risks leaving Iran with more unsold cargoes just as shipments arrive in Asia.
- Shandong teapots bought 16 million to 20.5 million barrels of non-sanctioned Middle Eastern crude in recent weeks, their largest such purchases since the conflict began, while Shenghong Petrochemical separately bought 12 million barrels of Iraqi, Abu Dhabi and Saudi crude.
- Non-Iranian cargoes were sold at discounts of $5 to $8 a barrel to ICE Brent for August-September delivery, while Iranian Light discounts held largely steady at $2 to $3 a barrel, prompting traders to call Iranian sellers slow and stubborn.
- The week of mourning for slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei, which ended with his burial on Thursday, also slowed Iranian sales as offices closed, while strait traffic has slowed again this week amid renewed US-Iran strikes.
- Tanker trackers Vortexa and Kpler estimate tens of millions of barrels of Iranian crude loaded or transiting Hormuz since mid-June, while China's Iranian oil imports this month fell to 556,000 bpd, the lowest since January 2023.
Iranian oil supplies at sea are rising after Tehran ramped up exports during its interim peace deal with the United States, but sales have been slow as China's independent refiners turn to cheaper crude from Iraq, the UAE and Qatar, according to Reuters. The return of US sanctions this week risks leaving Tehran with more cargoes searching for buyers just as shipments arrive in Asia.
Independent Chinese refiners based in the eastern hub of Shandong, known as teapots, bought between 16 million and 20.5 million barrels of crude from Qatar, Iraq and the UAE in recent weeks, their largest purchases of non-sanctioned Middle Eastern oil since the conflict began. Shandong's teapots account for the bulk of China's Iranian crude purchases, since state-owned Chinese refiners have largely avoided direct imports since sanctions were reimposed in 2018. Separately, privately owned refiner Shenghong Petrochemical bought 12 million barrels of Iraqi, Abu Dhabi and Saudi crude.
The wave of non-Iranian cargoes displaced demand for Iranian barrels as rival Middle Eastern producers rushed to resume exports following the reopening of the Strait of Hormuz in late June. Sold on a delivered basis by traders including Mercuria, Vitol, PetroChina International, Zhenhua Oil and Abu Dhabi National Oil Co, those cargoes moved at discounts of $5 to $8 a barrel to ICE Brent for August-September delivery. Discounts for Iranian Light crude, by contrast, were little changed at $2 to $3 a barrel to Brent, leading some traders to describe Iranian sellers as slow and stubborn. One senior trader remarked that Iranian oil had ironically become the most expensive barrel on offer. Traders also said the week of funeral events that culminated in Thursday's burial of slain Supreme Leader Ayatollah Ali Khamenei slowed sales further, as offices closed during the mourning period, while traffic through the strait has slowed again this week following renewed tit-for-tat attacks between the US and Iran.
Tanker tracking data underscores the scale of Iranian flows built up since the ceasefire. Vortexa Analytics estimated about 30 million barrels of Iranian oil were loaded between June 15 and July 6, equivalent to 1.35 million barrels per day, while Kpler recorded roughly 34.5 million barrels transiting the strait on 21 tankers between June 14 and July 10. United Against Nuclear Iran estimated exports peaked at 60.7 million barrels in February before falling to 35.7 million barrels in March, and calculated that 52 tankers have sailed with Iranian oil and products since the June 14 ceasefire, carrying around 62 million barrels, with 15 vessels already reaching waters near Singapore and Malaysia's Johor area. TankerTrackers.com said Tehran shipped out at least 10 million barrels overnight this week, anticipating a possible resumption of a US naval blockade.
Traders expect Iranian sales to pick up next week as independent refiners anticipate wider discounts of $4 to $5 a barrel for August-September cargoes. China's Iranian oil imports this month have fallen to 556,000 barrels per day, the lowest level since January 2023, underscoring how far Beijing's teapot refiners have already pivoted toward alternative Middle Eastern supply even before the fresh round of sanctions takes hold.
This article was written by fl6553e4b45d84486a91658a8b3f02bf22 at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
FX初心者には必須 無料のうちにGET！
