Canada June employment report shows +18.2K jobs vs +10K expected
- Prior was +87.8K
Details:
- Full time +0.6K vs +154K prior
- Part time +17.5K vs -66.2K prior
- Unemployemnt rate +6.5% vs 6.6% prior
- Avg hourly earnings +3.7% vs +3.2% prior
- Participation rate 65.0% vs 65.0% prior
- Public sector -31.0K, private sector +32.0K
- Manufacturing -17.0K, accommodation and food services +15.0K
This is a very good report considering the blockbuster reading a month ago. The unemployment rate has fallen 0.4 percentage points in two months and the job-finding rate (24.3%) is meaningfully better than a year ago (21.3%), Wages picked up as well, which might pull the BOC back into the hawkish camp. Market pricing is for a 50% chance of a hike in December.
Taking a wider view, the employment rate among core age workers is picking up towards the best levels since 2024 as Trump and trade war fears ebb.
The Bank currently has its policy rate at 2.25%, with its next decision due July 15.
The bad news in the report is manufacturing. Factory employment fell 17K, wiping out May's gain, and StatsCan helpfully notes the sector has now lost a net 61K jobs (-3.2%) since the January 2025 peak, "coinciding with a period of tariff-related uncertainty."
Another bit of good news is that government payrolls fell 31K in June, and over the past 12 months essentially all employment growth (+94K of +99K) has come from the private sector.
USD/CAD has declined modestly in the aftermath of the report and is down 22 pips to 1.4146 on the day.
This article was written by flc97fe4880a4b454993821fe0b770a597 at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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