EUR/USD continues to erase the NFP gains as focus remains on the US CPI data. What’s next?

2026年7月6日最近のFX関連情報Forex

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar came under some pressure in the final part of last week following the US NFP report. The data wasn’t bad, but it was enough to trigger a slightly dovish repricing in interest rate expectations. The chances for a July hike are now standing at just 24%, while the probabilities for a move in September dropped to 55%.

As mentioned previously, given the Fed’s focus on inflation, the US CPI will likely be more important. For now, the US dollar might remain rangebound until we get to the main event.

This week, we don’t have much on the agenda. We have Fed’s Waller speaking today, but unless he explicitly endorses rate hikes, the price action should remain rangebound. The other potential catalyst could be the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday.

This is almost never a market moving report but given the limited forward guidance from Fed Chair Warsh, traders will want to see if there’s any further signal in the minutes on the next policy move.

EUR:

On the EUR side, the recent inflation data showed a welcome easing for the ECB which, coupled with the quick drop in energy prices to pre-war levels, greatly diminished the urgency for further tightening. This is also what policymakers have been communicating via their recent speeches which basically sealed a pause in July (unless something really bad happens on the US-Iran/Strait of Hormuz side).

The market is still pricing in a 27% chance of a hike in July but that should now stand much lower. There’s a total of 25 bps of tightening still priced in by year-end which suggests the market is expecting at least another rate hike from the ECB. For now, the data supports a prolonged pause.

EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD is still consolidating near the key 1.14 support despite the upward spike triggered by the mixed NFP report. From a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the downward trendline to position for a drop into the 1.10 handle next. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to open the door for a rally into the 1.18 handle.

EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4 hour chart, we now have an upward trendline defining the correction. If we get a pullback into the trendline, we can expect the buyers to lean on it with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to pile in for a drop into new lows.

EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1 hour chart, we have a downward counter-trendline defining the current pullback into the 1.14 support. The sellers will likely continue to lean on it to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the major downward trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.