Gold extends the pullback after the mixed NFP, but the focus remains on the CPI report

2026年7月6日最近のFX関連情報Commodities

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Gold extended the pullback in the final part of last week following the US NFP report. The data wasn’t bad, but it was enough to trigger a slightly dovish repricing in interest rate expectations. The chances for a July hike are now standing at just 24%, while the probabilities for a move in September dropped to 55%.

As mentioned previously, given the Fed’s focus on inflation, the US CPI will likely be more important. For now, Gold will likely remain rangebound at a higher level until we get to the main event.

This week, we don’t have much on the agenda. We have Fed’s Waller speaking today, but unless he explicitly endorses rate hikes, the price action should remain rangebound. The other potential catalyst could be the FOMC meeting minutes on Wednesday.

This is almost never a market moving report, but given the limited forward guidance from Fed Chair Warsh, traders will want to see if there’s any further signal in the minutes on the next policy move.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, we can see that gold extended the pullback in the final part of last week following the mixed US NFP report. We are now approaching the first major downward trendline. We can expect the sellers to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to position for a drop into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the next trendline around the 4,500 level.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4 hour chart, we can see that the break above the swing high around the 4,095 level triggered by the NFP report opened the door for a move into the major downward trendline. If the price pulls back to retest the 4,095 level, we can expect the buyers to step in there with a defined risk below the support to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price falling back below the 4,095 level to pile back in and target new lows.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1 hour chart, we have a minor support around the 4,142 level. The buyers will likely step in around these levels with a defined risk below the support to keep pushing into new highs. The sellers, on the other hand, will wait for a break lower to extend the pullback into the 4,095 support next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.