BOE’s Mann: In June there were more upside risks to inflation
- In June there were more upside risks to inflation compared to downside risks for activity
- The trade-off between inflation risk and activity has led me to place more weight on inflation persistence, shifting my view toward a longer hold, and potentially a need to lean against that risk
- Data in H2 will be particularly important for me
- In June, cost-oriented inflation pressures were being offset by domestic-oriented financial restrictiveness
- Fiscal measures are important in getting us back to the inflation target
- Disaggregated labor signals in some sectors are less weak than the overall unemployment rate
- Short- and long-term expectations remain elevated
Mann’s comments maintained a hawkish bias, emphasizing that the balance of risks remains tilted toward inflation rather than growth. She said that in June there were greater upside risks to inflation than downside risks to activity, which has pushed her toward placing more weight on inflation persistence. That framing points to a preference for holding rates higher for longer, with the possibility of leaning against inflation risk if the data warrant it. Mann also highlighted that both short- and long-term inflation expectations remain elevated, a key concern for policymakers worried about second-round effects and credibility. Her comments on the labor market were more nuanced, noting that disaggregated signals in some sectors appear less weak than the overall unemployment rate suggests. She also said fiscal measures matter in returning inflation to target, reinforcing that monetary policy is not operating in isolation. Overall, the message was that financial restrictiveness is helping offset cost-driven inflation pressures, but not enough to dismiss the risk of persistence. Data in the second half of the year will be central to her policy view.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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