The USD is lower ahead of the US jobs report. What are the technical levels in play?
The US jobs report will be released a day early ahead of the 4th of July long holiday weekend starting on Friday. US markets and government offices will be closed tomorrow.
The expectations are for:
- Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.3% last
- Non Farm Payroll 110K vs 172K last
- Private Payroll 110K vs 120K last
- Average Earnings MoM 0.3% vs 0.3% last
- Average Earnings YoY 3.5% vs 3.4% last
- Average Workweek 34.3 hours vs 34.3 hours last
- Participation Rate 61.8% last
The USD is lower vs the major currencies with the USDJPY the biggest decliner of the big 3 at down -0.70%. The USD is lower vs the EUR (-0.26%) and the GBP (-0.37%) as well.
Japan is shifting to unsignalled, ambush-style intervention against yen short sellers rather than telegraphing risks in advance, sources tell Reuters, as the yen hits 40 year lows. That helped to send the USDJPY lower and through both its 100 and 200 hour MAs - shifting the bias to the downside.
A summary of the action:
- Japanese officials are moving away from telegraphing intervention risk and toward unsignalled action designed to squeeze speculative yen short positions, sources say
- Authorities are avoiding any suggestion of a specific yen level that would trigger intervention, with timing instead focused on preventing excessive falls
- The yen slumped to a 40 year low of 162.66 per dollar on Tuesday and was trading near 162.50 in Tokyo on Thursday
- Japan spent a record 11.7 trillion yen, around $72 billion, intervening between late April and early May, though the boost to the yen was quickly reversed
- BOJ Deputy Governor Ryozo Himino has warned that a weak yen may boost underlying inflation as import costs rise
- The BOJ's quarterly tankan survey showed business sentiment at an eight year high and record corporate inflation expectations, reinforcing the case for further rate hikes
- The BOJ's 1% policy rate remains far below the Fed's 3.50% to 3.75%, preserving a wide rate gap that continues to encourage yen selling
The EUR and GBP both gained vs the USD pulled higher (lower USD) by the JPY's move.
In the video above, I take a closer look at the price action and go through the bias, the targets and the risks through the US jobs report.
US stock future are implying a modestly higher levels
- S&P up 15 points
- Dow up 163 points
- Nasdaq up 86 points
US yields are continuing the move higher
- 2 year yield 4.178%, up 1.4 basis points
- 5 year yield 4.251%, up 2.1 basis points
- 10 year yield 4.497%, p 2.2 basis points
- 30 year yield 4.987%, up 2.1 basis points.
Crude oil is lower and dipping below the February 27 closing level at $67.28. That was the last close before the February 28 start of the Iran War. The price is currently trading at $67.21 down -$1.37 or 2.0%.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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