Silver stays rangebound above a key trendline as focus shifts to the US NFP report

2026年7月2日最近のFX関連情報Commodities

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Silver has been consolidating above a key trendline since last week as the hawkish repricing reached a near-term peak. Traders are now waiting for the US NFP and US CPI reports to pick a direction.

Right now, the market is pricing in a 29% chance of a rate hike in July, which rises to 65% in September. I’m pretty sure we will need notable upside surprises in the data to force the Fed to hike already in July. September would be the preferred month for them as they also release the SEP and the dot plot.

Given the Fed’s focus on inflation, the US CPI will likely be more important for market pricing unless we get a blockbuster NFP report. In line or worse than expected data, should lead to a pullback pretty much across the board, with silver benefiting from some dovish repricing. On the other hand, upside surprises should keep weighing on the precious metal.

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, we can see that silver is slowly pulling back into the downward trendline. If the price gets there, we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to position for a drop into the 45.55 level. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the 71.55 level next.

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4 hour chart, we can see price action has been mostly rangebound above the major upward trendline as the hawkish repricing reached a near-term peak and traders continued to wait for the key US data release. There’s not much we can add here as the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the downward trendline, while the buyers will keep on stepping in around the upward trendline or wait for a break above the downward trendline to increase the bullish bets into new highs.

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1 hour chart, we can see the recent price action formed a rising channel that could turn into a bearish flag if the price breaks below the upward trendline. If we get a spike lower on a good NFP report, I suspect we might not see a follow through until the US CPI as traders might want to wait for inflation data to confirm whether an earlier than expected rate hike could come. On the other hand, if the NFP report comes in line or even worse than expectations, we will likely see silver extending the pullback into the downward trendline. The red lines define the average daily range for today.