Gold extends the consolidation as traders await the US NFP report. What’s next?

2026年7月2日最近のFX関連情報Commodities

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Gold recouped all the losses experienced in the first part of the week. There was no meaningful catalyst for the downside nor for the upside. The price action has just been rangebound near the 4,000 level as the hawkish repricing peaked at the end of last week. Traders are now waiting for the US NFP and US CPI reports to pick a direction.

Right now, the market is pricing in a 29% chance of a rate hike in July, which rises to 65% in September. I’m pretty sure we will need notable upside surprises in the data to force the Fed to hike already in July. September would be the preferred month for them as they also release the SEP and the dot plot.

Given the Fed’s focus on inflation, the US CPI will likely be more important for market pricing unless we get a blockbuster NFP report. In line or worse than expected data, should lead to a pullback pretty much across the board, with gold benefiting from some dovish repricing. On the other hand, upside surprises should keep weighing on the market.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, we can see that gold continues to consolidate near the 4,000 level as traders await the key US data for the next direction. If the price falls into the 3,885 level, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the level to position for a pullback into the major downward trendline around the 4,250 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to increase the bearish bets into the major upward trendline around the 3,700 level.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4 hour chart, we can see the upward spike yesterday stalled right at the swing high around the 4,100 level. The sellers will likely continue to step in around these levels with a defined risk above the swing high to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to increase the bullish bets into the downward trendline.

GOLD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here but if we get a spike lower on a good NFP report, we might not see a downside breakout until the US CPI as traders might want to wait for inflation data to confirm whether an earlier than expected rate hike could come. On the other hand, if the NFP report comes in line or even worse than expectations, we will likely see gold extending the pullback into new highs and target the major downward trendline next. The red lines define the average daily range for today.