AUD/USD consolidates at a major trendline as traders await fresh catalysts

2026年6月26日最近のFX関連情報Forex

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar has been supported following the hawkish Fed dot plot last week as the central bank’s tightening bias led to a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations.

As a reminder, the Fed delivered a hawkish surprise by projecting a rate hike this year (the consensus was for no cuts or hikes). There are now 32 bps of tightening priced in by year-end. There's a 29% chance of a hike in July and 60% probability of a move in September.

There’s been a slightly dovish repricing in the last couple of days. One of the reasons could be the huge selloff in oil prices which have now reached pre-war levels. The other reason is that the hawkish repricing might have reached a near-term peak and for more we will likely need upside surprises in the NFP and CPI reports.

Although the greenback should remain supported into the data, we might start to see some consolidation or even pullbacks if don’t get any meaningful catalyst before the key US data.

AUD:

On the AUD side, the RBA recently softened its tone following the rate hike that pushed the cash rate to 4.35% with one dissenter voting for keeping rates unchanged. The meeting minutes and recent remarks from policymakers indicate that the central bank is leaning toward a pause as they gauge the economic impact of previous hikes even though they maintain a tightening bias.

The recent data showed an easing in headline inflation, but the core measure ticked higher still. The employment report was a bit better than the prior month with the unemployment rate ticking lower. The recent PMIs showed business activity and future sentiment improving. All in all, the data will likely keep the RBA in a tightening bias but it’s not urging for further rate hikes. The market is pricing just a 31% chance of another rate hike by year-end.

AUDUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, we can see that AUDUSD finally reached the major upward trendline. This is where we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below the trendline to position for a pullback into the downward trendline. The sellers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking lower to keep pushing into the 0.6835 level next.

AUDUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4 hour chart, we have a minor downward trendline defining the bearish momentum. The sellers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk above it to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to increase the bullish bets into the next trendline around the 0.70 handle.

AUDUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here but we can see there’s a strong resistance zone around the 0.6925 level. That’s where we can expect the sellers to step in with a defined risk above the trendline to keep pushing into new lows, while the buyers will need the price to break higher to potentially extend the pullback into the next trendline. The red lines define average daily range for today.