EUR/USD is retesting a key zone amid US dollar weakness on peak hawkish repricing

2026年6月26日最近のFX関連情報Forex

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

USD:

The US dollar has been supported following the hawkish Fed dot plot last week as the central bank’s tightening bias led to a hawkish repricing in interest rate expectations.

As a reminder, the Fed delivered a hawkish surprise by projecting a rate hike this year (the consensus was for no cuts or hikes). There are now 32 bps of tightening priced in by year-end. There's a 29% chance of a hike in July and 60% probability of a move in September.

There’s been a slightly dovish repricing in the last couple of days. One of the reasons could be the huge selloff in oil prices which have now reached pre-war levels. The other reason is that the hawkish repricing might have reached a near-term peak and for more we will likely need upside surprises in the NFP and CPI reports.

Although the greenback should remain supported into the data, we might start to see some consolidation or even pullbacks if don’t get any meaningful catalyst before the key US data.

EUR:

On the EUR side, the ECB is maintaining the tightening bias, but all the rate hikes have been already priced in a long time ago. The central bank is now taking a pause at least until September to see how the economic data evolves over the summer. The market is pricing in 28 bps of tightening by year-end with the next hike coming in September at the earliest.

The Eurozone Flash PMIs this week showed unsurprisingly the rate of inflation easing to the slowest pace since February, just before the US-Iran conflict began. While economic activity remains subdued, the downward pressure eased and we might see more improvement in the next months. The latest ECB consumer expectations survey has also confirmed that consumers expect lower inflation and better growth in the year ahead.

EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, we can see that EURUSD broke below a key support zone around the 1.14 handle opening the door for a drop towards the 1.10 level next. Right now, we are seeing a retest of the broken support turned resistance. The sellers will likely step in around these levels with a defined risk above the resistance to keep pushing into new lows. The buyers, on the other hand, will want to see the price breaking higher to pile in for a rally into the downward trendline next.

EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4 hour chart, we can see the price broke above the minor downward trendline that was defining the bearish momentum. This might be an early signal of a bigger pullback into the 1.1525 level next, but the price will need to break above the resistance to open the door for new highs.

EURUSD TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1 hour chart, we have a minor upward trendline defining the current pullback. The buyers will likely continue to lean on the trendline with a defined risk below it to keep pushing into new highs, while the sellers will look for a break lower to pile back in for new lows. The red lines define the average daily range for today.