Standard Chartered sees gold at $5,100 and S&P at 7,950 by mid-2027
The $5,100 gold target is the most striking single number in the outlook and, set against a mid-2027 timeframe, implies meaningful further upside from current levels; the bank's characterisation of gold as its preferred diversifier signals a structural rather than tactical allocation call. The S&P 500 target of 7,950 is constructive but not aggressive given the 12% gain already posted by global equities in the first half, and the soft-landing framing suggests the bank sees the earnings backdrop holding rather than deteriorating.
The preference for emerging market dollar-denominated bonds over developed market fixed income reflects a view that the yield pickup in EM credit is worth the risk at this point in the cycle. Notably, the bank's flag on high IPO supply as a pivot point is a reminder that equity market liquidity can be absorbed quickly in a heavy issuance environment, which could cap index upside even if the macro backdrop holds.
Standard Chartered forecasts gold at $5,100/oz and the S&P 500 at 7,950 by mid-2027, favouring equities and EM bonds in a soft-landing base case while flagging a more active H2 ahead.
Summary:
- Standard Chartered forecasts the S&P 500 will reach 7,950 and gold will hit $5,100 per ounce by mid-2027, according to the bank's half-year outlook
- The bank's base case remains a soft-landing macro scenario, with recession and stagflation risks seen as reduced by softer energy prices, per the outlook
- Global equities have risen approximately 12% since the start of 2026, supported by earnings growth and AI-driven optimism that has offset geopolitical tensions, higher oil prices and elevated bond yields, according to Standard Chartered
- The bank favours US and Asia ex-Japan equities, selective fixed income opportunities, and emerging market dollar-denominated bonds, per the half-year outlook
- Gold is identified as Standard Chartered's preferred portfolio diversifier alongside core alternative strategy holdings, according to the outlook
- Global CIO Steve Brice said the second half of 2026 is likely to require more active navigation, with key pivot points including energy prices, IPO supply, investor positioning and central bank policy, per the outlook
Standard Chartered has set out a cautiously constructive outlook for the second half of 2026, forecasting the S&P 500 will reach 7,950 and gold will climb to $5,100 per ounce by the middle of next year, while warning investors that the relatively smooth gains of the first half are unlikely to be replicated without more active portfolio management.
The UK-listed bank's half-year outlook, published by its chief investment office, maintains a soft-landing base case for the global economy, a scenario in which growth slows modestly without tipping into recession and inflation continues to ease. The bank noted that softer energy prices have reduced, though not eliminated, the risk of more damaging outcomes such as recession or stagflation. A small probability of a stronger-than-expected growth re-acceleration is also retained in the bank's scenario set.
Global equities have delivered approximately 12% in gains since the start of 2026, a performance the bank attributed to solid earnings growth and sustained optimism around artificial intelligence, factors that proved sufficient to absorb the headwinds from geopolitical tensions, elevated oil prices and high bond yields. Standard Chartered expects further upside from here but flags that the path will be less straightforward, with several pivot points requiring careful navigation in the months ahead. These include the direction of energy prices, the volume of new equity supply coming to market through IPOs, the state of investor positioning and sentiment, and the evolving stance of central banks.
Within equities, the bank favours global stocks with a particular preference for US and Asia ex-Japan markets, which it sees as best positioned to benefit from the soft-landing backdrop. In fixed income, it sees selective opportunities and specifically favours emerging market dollar-denominated bonds, where existing yields are considered attractive relative to the risk on offer.
Gold is identified as the bank's preferred diversifier, sitting alongside core holdings in alternative strategies as the recommended hedge against the uncertainty the second half is expected to bring. The $5,100 per ounce target by mid-2027 represents a meaningful extension of the metal's recent run and underlines the bank's view that the case for gold as a portfolio anchor remains intact even as geopolitical risk partially recedes.
Global chief investment officer Steve Brice said staying invested, maintaining diversification and being prepared to exploit periods of volatility would be the defining disciplines for investors navigating the second half of the year.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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