New York Times: China set to keep shaping oil prices as it holds back on imports
China's sharp pullback in crude purchases has acted as a de facto shock absorber for global oil markets, helping explain why prices topped out near $120 a barrel rather than testing the $200 levels some had flagged as a worst-case scenario. With oil now trading near three-month lows on signs of a US-Iran framework deal, the bigger question for traders is whether Beijing resumes buying at scale once the geopolitical premium fades, which could reverse some of the cushioning effect seen since February. Given China's status as the world's largest crude importer, its purchasing behaviour remains one of the more important swing factors for price direction even as the immediate supply shock eases.
--- China's oil imports fell to an eight-year low of under 8 million barrels a day in May, helping cap prices despite the Iran war's supply shock.
Summary: According to customs data released by Beijing and analysts cited by the New York Times, including Jason Bordoff of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy:
- China's oil imports fell from an average of 11.6 million barrels a day before the war to under 8 million by May, an eight-year low
- Oil prices peaked near $120 a barrel after the war cut roughly a fifth of global supply, well below the $200 some analysts had warned of
- Prices have since eased to three-month lows following a US-Iran framework agreement to end the war
- China's import restraint is cited as one of the most significant factors keeping prices from spiking further
- The world has lost more than 14 million barrels a day in supply since the conflict began on February 28
China's sharp reduction in oil purchases has played a central role in preventing a far more severe spike in global crude prices since war broke out between the United States, Israel and Iran in late February, according to the New York Times.
As the world's largest oil buyer, China imported an average of 11.6 million barrels a day before the conflict began. By May, that figure had fallen below eight million barrels a day, its lowest level in more than eight years, according to customs data released by Beijing.
The conflict triggered the worst oil supply shock in modern history after Iran moved to close the Strait of Hormuz, removing more than 14 million barrels a day from global markets. Prices initially surged to nearly $120 a barrel, with some analysts warning of a run toward $200, but that scenario never materialised.
Analysts, including Jason Bordoff of Columbia University's Center on Global Energy Policy, point to China's import slowdown as one of the most significant reasons prices stayed contained. Oil has since pulled back to three-month lows after the United States and Iran reached a framework agreement to end the war, though analysts caution China's purchasing decisions will continue to carry outsized influence over where prices head next.
This article was written by Eamonn Sheridan at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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