USDCAD sellers are trying to make a play, but they have work to do
The USDCAD extended its rally to a new high of 1.3953 today, the highest level since April 6. In doing so, the pair pushed above the April 6 high at 1.3948, signaling continued bullish momentum. However, the move stalled just short of the March 31 high at 1.3966, which remains the highest level of 2026 and an important technical target for buyers. The inability to reach and test that key resistance level attracted profit-taking and helped trigger a reversal lower as broader U.S. dollar selling emerged during the North American session.
Part of the shift in sentiment came as U.S. equities rebounded, reducing some of the defensive demand for the U.S. dollar. At the same time, Treasury yields moved lower, with the 2-year yield falling 3.6 basis points and the 10-year yield declining 1.8 basis points, also taking some support away from the greenback. As a result, the USDCAD began to retrace a portion of its recent gains after failing to sustain the breakout to new highs.
From a technical perspective, the reversal has taken the price back below the 100- and 200-bar moving averages on the 5-minute chart, both of which are currently clustered near 1.3942. The current price is trading around 1.3931, leaving those moving averages as close resistance. As long as the pair remains below that moving-average cluster, sellers have an opportunity to extend the correction lower. However, to gain more meaningful control, they still need to push the price below the 38.2% retracement of the rally from Friday’s low at 1.3919, followed by the 50% retracement level at 1.3909. Those levels represent the next key downside targets and would need to be broken to increase the bearish bias.
On the other hand, if buyers can stabilize the pair and move back above the short-term moving averages, attention would quickly return to the highs at 1.3953 and then the March 31 peak at 1.3966. A break above that level would strengthen the bullish case and open the door for a continuation of the broader recovery that has been underway since the May 1 low near 1.3549. In the video above, I walk through the technical levels driving the pair and explain what buyers and sellers need to do to take greater control going forward.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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