US May non-farm payrolls +172K vs +85K expected
- Prior was +115K
- Two-month net revision +93K
- March was +185K
- Unemployment rate 4.3% vs 4.3% expected
- Prior unemployment rate 4.3%
- Unrounded unemployment ___% vs 4.337% prior
- Participation rate 61.8% vs 61.8% prior
- U6 underemployment rate 8.1% vs 8.2% prior
- Average hourly earnings +0.3% m/m vs +0.3% expected
- Average hourly earnings +3.4% y/y vs +3.4% expected
- Average weekly hours 34.3vs 34.3 expected
- Change in private payrolls +120K vs +85K expected
- Change in manufacturing payrolls +7K vs +2K expected
- Government payrolls +52K vs -8K in April
The US labor market entered May firmly in low-hire, low-fire mode. Hiring had cooled to a trickle — the trailing 12-month pace down around +21K — but employers weren't cutting either, leaving the unemployment rate pinned at 4.3% for months. April set the tone, with +115K nearly doubling the ~62K consensus, led by health care, transportation and warehousing, and retail. March was revised up to +185K while February was marked down to -156K.
The leading data into May was mixed but not alarming. ADP's private-sector tally came in at +122K with eight of ten sectors adding jobs, the most broad-based hiring in years on their read. Jobless claims drifted higher, with initial claims back up to 225K, the highest since early February, but still consistent with a backdrop of soft hiring rather than rising layoffs.
The stakes sit with the Fed. The funds rate has been held at 3.50-3.75% since last year, with markets pricing roughly 97% odds of another hold at the June 16-17 meeting and inflation still stuck near 3.8%. That leaves the bar high for the labor data to shift the path: it would take a clear stumble — a soft headline or heavy back-month revisions — to revive rate-cut bets.
This article was written by Adam Button at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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