What are analysts expecting from the US jobs report later today?
The median estimate is for the headline non-farm payrolls figure to come in at 85k, with the unemployment rate to keep steady at 4.3% again. Typically, there will be a lot at stake when we get to the US jobs report. However, this time around is rather different as the Fed outlook is mired by US-Iran developments for the most part.
As things stand, traders are not expecting any rate changes by the Fed for this year. Of course, the situation remains fluid. But the fact of the matter is until there is more clarity on the US-Iran conflict and/or inflation developments, the Fed cannot feel confident in pre-committing to a particular rate path just yet.
Taking that into consideration, the US jobs report today will be less influential to the macro outlook. But rather, it will just be another economic data point to scrutinise on the overall health of the US economy and general risk mood. Still, that doesn't mean we should discount the potential impact on markets before the weekend.
So, let's take a look at what analysts are expecting ahead of the data today.
BofA- NFP: 95k, Unemployment rate: 4.3%- "We look for another upside NFP surprise with risks to the upside, and an unchanged unemployment rate of 4.3%. Education & health should continue to lead.. Warm weather will likely support leisure & hospitality and construction for the third consecutive month. Risks are tilted to the upside, with claims still benign and weekly ADP data remaining strong."- Fed to stay "comfortably on hold", threshold for hikes is the unemployment rate being closer to 4.0%- "USD paralysed by geopolitical headlines recently, but a strong report could reassert."
Goldman Sachs- NFP: 60k, Unemployment rate: 4.3%- "We forecast a 60k increase in payrolls (vs 89k consensus) in May. Big data indicators of job growth slowed, and government is likely to be a 5k net drag. We expect the unemployment rate to remain unchanged at 4.3%." - "May unemployment rate appears to suffer from modest positive residual seasonality and the bar for rounding up to 4.4% is not high from an unrounded 4.34% in April."
JP Morgan- NFP: 75k, Unemployment rate: 4.3%- "Our 85k projection for private jobs is mildly above the trend of private payrolls from the last six months (68k), though right in line with the average since the start of 12 the year."- "We suspect breakeven payrolls are still under 50k per month and could be closer to 0."- "May payrolls have been revised down in the last few years between the first and third prints (as have many months), so the initial showing may ultimately get revised lower. For April and March there isn’t a strong revision pattern."- "The un-rounded unemployment rate was 4.337% in April, so there is a low bar to round up to 4.4%. However, we see the risks tilted more toward 4.2%."
Morgan Stanley- NFP: 65k, Unemployment rate: 4.3%- "We forecast payrolls rose 65k and private payrolls rose 75k. The federal government layoffs remain a drag on headline payrolls, and we also incorporate drags on private payrolls from the transportation sector."- "While broad labour market conditions may not have changed much, there were some particular strains in May. We estimate that airline bankruptcy results in 10k in layoffs— WARN notices totalled about 8k, and some spillover is likely."- "We also expect an ongoing drag on trucking payrolls of around 10k per month as the federal Department of Transportation called for the cancellation of the commercial drivers’ licenses of those who do not have US residency."- "For the household survey, we expect another 4.3% unemployment rate (still on the cusp of 4.2%) and an unchanged labour force participation rate. Average hourly earnings likely rise 0.3% m/m, and the 12-month pace slows 0.1 pp to 3.5% y/y."
This article was written by Justin Low at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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