Silver follows gold lower as precious metals remain under pressure amid rising real yields

2026年5月20日最近のFX関連情報Commodities

FUNDAMENTAL OVERVIEW

Silver followed gold lower yesterday and dropped into new lows as Treasury yields extended their gains, with the 30-year reaching the highest level since 2007.

Inflation worries and Fed rate hike risks intensified recently as markets started to grow impatient amid the prolonged US-Iran stalemate and Strait of Hormuz closure. Traders are now pricing in a 50% chance of a rate hike by year-end.

On the US-Iran front nothing has changed. Trump continues to threaten Iran with new strikes if they don’t make a deal, while Tehran warns the US that they have gained military knowledge from previous hostilities and that “a return to war would feature many more surprises”.

The main problem for silver and gold remains the Fed. Although the central bank is still keeping an easing bias, we are now approaching a point where the Fed is likely to drop it entirely. If nothing changes before the June meeting, we might be in for a hawkish surprise as inflation continues to run hot and the US data remains resilient.

In the short-term, a resolution and the reopening of the Strait will likely support silver on falling oil prices and increased rate cut bets. But if the Strait remains closed for longer and oil prices stay elevated, the risk of the Fed being forced to hike anyway increases and that will keep weighing on precious metals.

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – DAILY TIMEFRAME

On the daily chart, we can see that silver is approaching the major trendline around the 70.00 handle. If the price gets there, we can expect the buyers to step in with a defined risk below it to position for a rally into the 96.00 level. The sellers, on the other hand, will look for a break to increase the bearish bets into the next major trendline around the 55.00 handle.

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 4 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 4 hour chart, we have a minor resistance zone around the 79.00 level. If we get a bigger pullback into that resistance, we can expect the sellers to step in there with a defined risk above the resistance to keep pushing into the major trendline. The buyers, on the other hand, will look for a break higher to extend the pullback into the 83.00 resistance next.

SILVER TECHNICAL ANALYSIS – 1 HOUR TIMEFRAME

On the 1 hour chart, there’s not much we can add here as from a risk management perspective, the sellers will have a better risk to reward setup around the resistance, while the buyers will have it around the 70.00 handle. The red lines define the average daily range for today.