What is the bias, risks and targets for the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD right now
As the new trading day gets underway, markets are off to a relatively cautious and choppy start. Oil prices are modestly lower and trading near session lows after giving back an earlier spike higher. U.S. yields are also slightly lower — down around 1 basis point across much of the curve after trading higher earlier in the session. In equities, the tone is mixed following Friday’s sharp declines, with the Dow industrial average modestly lower, the S&P near unchanged, and the Nasdaq edging slightly higher. Overall, however, the price action remains back-and-forth with little conviction early in the day.
In the video above, I take a technical look at the three major currency pairs — EURUSD, USDJPY, and GBPUSD — and break down the key levels defining the current bias, risk, and upside/downside targets.
The EURUSD pushed to a new low going back to April 8, but sellers could not sustain momentum toward the next key downside target at the 61.8% retracement of the rally from the March 16 low at 1.15766. Since then, the pair has rebounded back above the 50% midpoint at 1.16287 and moved toward a swing area between 1.16377 and 1.16464. A more important technical barometer comes in near 1.1655, a level that served as support on April 9 and April 30 before turning into resistance during Friday’s rebound. If buyers are going to regain more control, they need to get and stay above that level. Absent that, the sellers still maintain the broader near-term advantage.
The USDJPY is trading near unchanged on the day, although the more recent bias has tilted lower. On Thursday and Friday, buyers pushed the pair back into a broader consolidation range between 158.00 and 160.00. Today’s high extended just above the midpoint of that range at 159.07, but the pair has since rotated lower. The 159.00 level now acts as a key pivot, separating the better support near 158.00 from stronger resistance closer to 160.00. Traders will continue to watch that midpoint closely as the market weighs intervention risk, yield differentials, and broader dollar sentiment.
The GBPUSD came under heavy pressure last week amid rising political uncertainty in the U.K. and concerns about the economic implications of sharply higher yields. Importantly, the rise in yields was viewed less as a sign of stronger growth and more as a reflection of growing fiscal and political concerns, which weighed heavily on the pound. Today, however, the pair has managed to claw back above the broken 61.8% retracement of the move up from the March 31 low at 1.33496 and is trading near session highs. On the topside, the next key targets come in at the 50% midpoint near 1.3408 and the 200-day moving average at 1.3423. Buyers still need to break and hold above those levels to shift the bias back more clearly in their favor.
Meanwhile, the political backdrop in the U.K. remains extremely fluid. Reports indicate that 97 Labour MPs have called on Prime Minister Starmer to resign or outline a timetable for departure, while Health Secretary Wes Streeting resigned and confirmed he would run in a leadership contest if one is triggered. Under Labour Party rules, a leadership election can only begin if Starmer resigns or if 81 MPs formally nominate a challenger — and so far Starmer has vowed to remain in office. The leading names being discussed as potential successors include Wes Streeting, Andy Burnham, Angela Rayner, and David Lammy, with Burnham widely viewed as the early frontrunner, although he would first need to secure a parliamentary seat to be eligible. The situation remains highly dynamic and could escalate significantly in the days ahead.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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