It is jobs day. What technical levels are in play for the 3 major currency pairs today?
The US jobs report is expected to show a meaningful slowdown in hiring momentum, but not enough deterioration to immediately force the Fed into an easing cycle. Consensus forecasts call for headline nonfarm payrolls to rise by 62K, down sharply from 178K last month, while private payrolls are expected at 75K versus 186K previously. The unemployment rate is forecast to hold steady at 4.3%, and average hourly earnings are expected to rise 0.3% m/m after 0.2% last month, lifting the annual wage growth pace to 3.8% y/y from 3.5%.
The expected combination paints a mixed picture for the Federal Reserve. Slower hiring suggests the labor market is cooling toward a more sustainable pace, but firm wage growth and a stable unemployment rate reinforce concerns that inflation pressures may remain sticky. That dynamic is especially important with Fed officials increasingly focused on inflation risks tied to energy prices and geopolitical tensions surrounding Iran.
In Canada, the labor market is expected to remain relatively stable. Economists forecast the unemployment rate to hold at 6.7%, while employment change is expected at +15.0K compared to +14.1K last month. The data is unlikely to dramatically shift Bank of Canada expectations unless there is a meaningful surprise in either employment growth or unemployment.
Among the major bank previews, most analysts expect a softer but still positive US jobs report:
- BofA expects payrolls to rise 80K with private payrolls at 90K, citing low layoffs, improving ADP data, and resilient claims data. They see risks tilted modestly to the upside and believe a 4.3% or lower unemployment rate would keep the Fed comfortably on hold.
- Goldman Sachs forecasts 75K payroll growth and a steady 4.3% unemployment rate. Goldman notes solid big-data hiring indicators and stable job openings but expects some drag from declining federal government payrolls.
- Morgan Stanley looks for 70K payroll growth and sees labor conditions remaining close to the pace needed to keep unemployment steady. They also point to lower jobless claims as evidence layoffs remain contained.
There are also a couple of notable outlier forecasts:
- Barclays expects essentially flat employment growth, arguing that March strength may reverse due to payback from favorable seasonal adjustments, weather distortions, and fading healthcare strike effects. Even so, they still expect unemployment to remain near 4.3%.
- Citi is the most bearish major forecast, looking for a -15K payroll decline and a rise in unemployment to 4.4%. Citi argues that immigration changes and increased volatility could weigh on hiring and believes the Fed will ultimately focus more on broader labor market trends than any single monthly payroll report.
For markets, the biggest focus will likely be whether the data confirms a “cooling but stable” labor market or hints at sharper deterioration. A stronger-than-expected report with firm wages could push yields and the USD higher as traders scale back Fed cut expectations. A weak payroll number — especially if unemployment rises to 4.4% — would likely reinforce rate-cut expectations later in the year and weigh on the dollar while supporting stocks initially.
The US stocks are higher ahead of the release with the Dow industrial average showing a gain of 155.03 in premarket trading, the NASDAQ index is up 216 point while the S&P index is up 36.64 point.
In the US debt market, yields are lower with the two-year down -1.1 basis points at 3.907%, the 10 year yield is down to basis points at 4.374% then still above the 4.25% and 4.0% levels are were seen more regularly earlier in the year.
US dollar is lower. In the video above I will take a look at the 3 major currency pairs - the EURUSD, USDJPY and GBPUSD - from a technical perspective.The major currency pairs are trading in technically important zones as traders continue to react to the latest moves in yields, risk sentiment, and key support/resistance levels.
EURUSD: The EURUSD found support at session lows during the early Asian-Pacific session against a key cluster of moving averages. Buyers leaned against the rising 100-hour moving average at 1.1727 and the 200-hour moving average at 1.1719, helping to stabilize the pair after the low reached 1.1724. Just below those levels sits the 100-day moving average at 1.1707, adding another important layer of support. Those moving averages remain the key technical barometer for today and going forward. A move below them would tilt the bias back to the downside.
On the topside, the pair rebounded to a high of 1.1773 and is currently trading near 1.1762. Despite the recovery, the price remains below yesterday’s high near 1.1778 and below the week’s high from Wednesday near 1.1796/1.1800. A break above those resistance levels would strengthen the bullish bias and open the door toward the next upside targets at 1.1823–1.1836, followed by 1.1849. For now, buyers remain more in control while price holds above the key moving averages.
USDJPY: The USDJPY rebounded during the Asian-Pacific session after bottoming earlier this week near the 155.00 level on Wednesday. The recovery pushed the pair back above the 100-hour moving average, currently near 156.88, with the high reaching 156.99 before upside momentum stalled.
The pair has since rotated back lower and is now trading back below the 100-hour moving average near 156.74. The next key support comes at the 50% midpoint of the rally from the February 12 low, which sits at 156.50. A move below that level would increase bearish momentum and target the 61.8% retracement at 155.50. Conversely, if buyers can regain control and push the price back above the 100-hour moving average, traders will look toward the 100-day moving average at 157.35, followed by the 200-hour moving average at 157.64.
GBPUSD: The GBPUSD initially moved lower and briefly extended below its 200-hour moving average at 1.3555, reaching a session low of 1.3548. However, downside momentum faded during the Asian-Pacific session, allowing buyers to regain control and rotate the pair back to the upside.
The rebound pushed the price back above the 100-hour moving average at 1.3572 and through a key swing area between 1.3575 and 1.3602. That zone now serves as an important support region for buyers. On the topside, traders will continue to focus on resistance near the highs from this week and last week at 1.3631, 1.3643, and 1.3657. A sustained move above those levels would open the door for a stronger bullish extension toward the 1.3700 level.
This article was written by Greg Michalowski at investinglive.com.提供 MainLink：Investinglive RSS Breaking News Feed
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